{"id":1228,"date":"2020-02-19T04:57:38","date_gmt":"2020-02-19T05:57:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/?p=1228"},"modified":"2020-02-19T04:57:38","modified_gmt":"2020-02-19T05:57:38","slug":"will-idlib-be-the-sultans-waterloo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/2020\/02\/19\/will-idlib-be-the-sultans-waterloo\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Idlib be the Sultan\u2019s Waterloo?"},"content":{"rendered":"

On 19 Dec 2019 the Syrian Army (SAA), backed by Russian air support and contingents of Iranian and Hezbollah troops, began a renewed offensive in the Idlib governate of Syria with the aim of enforcing the Sochi Memorandum of Understanding. The ongoing action will clear the M4 and has already cleared the M5 highways that run through Idlib, thus eventually connecting the Russian base at Latakia on the Mediterranean with eastern Syria, as well as connecting Damascus with all points north and east. The action has enraged one Recip Tayyip Erdogan, the wannabe Sultan, for reasons outlined below. He has invested heavily in the takfiri fighters in Idlib. And now all of Aleppo has been liberated. Syrians have been celebrating in the streets and a large number of reinforcements for the SAA are pouring into the region. The question then arises, is the battle for Idlib the Sultan\u2019s Waterloo?<\/span><\/p>\n

From a recent analysis<\/a><\/span> of Erdogan and his situation:<\/span><\/p>\n

It is hard to say if Erdogan is running out of choices, friends, time, or all of the above; and his stands on various issues and the contradictions he ploughs through are making his situation increasingly untenable. For the benefit of readers who haven\u2019t heard this before; Erdogan is juggling being a Turkish Muslim reformer who parades under the photos of Turkish secular anti-Muslim nation-builder Mustafa Kemal; an EU-aspiring member and also an aspiring global Sunni leader; an ally of Israel as well as Hamas; an Islamist who is also at odds with the Wahhabi Islamists; a nationalist Turk who wants to curb Kurdish aspirations not only in Syria and Iraq but also in Turkey; a Sunni leader who wants to restore the Sultanate and Caliphate and the fundamentalist Sunni version of anti-Shiite Islam but is also a friend of Shiite Iran; a NATO member with a special relationship with America, and a special friend and ally of Russia.<\/span><\/p>\n

Idlib is showing up such contradictions in bold relief, and at the very least, is going to be a big reality check for Erdogan. To begin, we have a little background. Idlib is the last stronghold of the opposition forces against Assad in Syria of any consequence, and it is these whom Erdogan has supported. Assad and much of the world see them as terrorists. The Western media paints them as \u2018freedom fighters\u2019 and \u2018moderate rebels\u2019. They are nothing of the sort. Those fighters have been cobbled together from various regions, in the major part from the Caucasus region and Xinjiang, along with disgruntled Syrians. There are also westerners among their number. They have been given passage through, free movement in and have been paid by Turkey all along. And they are largely indoctrinated in extremist Islam, Wahhabi-style.<\/span><\/p>\n

The reason these people have come to be concentrated in Idlib is as a result of the SAA and Russian forces clearing the rest of Syria of their kind since 2015. With each major offensive in the past by the SAA, agreements were struck that allowed the takfiri<\/a><\/span> who wanted to live to fight another day to be shipped off to Idlib. Hence, their presence there.<\/span><\/p>\n

Assad has vowed to return every inch of Syrian territory that existed since its founding back to Syrian control. Idlib has been the last holdout, aside from Afrin and northeast Syria. But the latter two are a different matter. The most hardened fighters against Assad are in Idlib. Once they are routed, it is only a matter of time before the remainder of Syria is liberated. The main push at the moment, as stated, has been to reopen the M4 and M5 highways, which will be a major boost to the Syrian economy and that nation\u2019s rebuilding. The liberation of Aleppo has also opened the international airport there<\/a><\/span>, which will also help. For these reasons, that is also why the fighting there is so intense.<\/span><\/p>\n

In September of 2018, as part of the Astana Agreement<\/a><\/span>, the Sochi Memorandum of Understanding was signed between Turkey and Russia, which was to create a demilitarized zone (DMZ) of 15 \u2013 25 km depth on both sides of the M4 and M5 highways, which would allow free transport along those roads and, it was hoped, lead to a political solution to the Syrian war. It failed from the very start.<\/span><\/p>\n

Almost as soon as the ink was dried on the signatures to the agreement, the group calling itself Hayat Tahrir al-Sham<\/a><\/span> (HTS) began infighting among the various terrorist groups in Idlib and eventually consolidated most all of them under its umbrella. HTS is otherwise al-Qaida in Syria re-branded. They then began shelling SAA positions and western Aleppo, as well as attacking the Russian base at Latakia. The Turks set up observation posts (a.k.a. military bases) along the highways, and then did nothing to uphold the agreement. The Syrians and Russians had finally had enough and began enforcement of Astana militarily. The end result in the next months will likely see all of Idlib cleared, and then the southernmost part of Afrin along the M4.<\/span><\/p>\n

As to why any of this would upset Erdogan, seeing that he agreed to the DMZ, has some rather interesting implications and backstory. The map below will make this clear (bigger<\/a><\/span>):<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The M4 and M5 highways are outlined in the heavy white lines, with the major cities circled in white. Aleppo<\/a><\/span> is the main industrial center in Syria. Before the war it was the largest city by population in Syria, but has since slid to 2nd<\/sup> because of fatalities and flight due to its occupation. It was largely liberated in December of 2016 by the SAA, except for western suburbs, which was a major turning point in the war. Now it has been reunited with Damascus via the M5, removing a big blockage toward Syria\u2019s reconstruction. Once the takfiri have been pushed back to a safe distance, traffic along the road can begin to flow. Essentially, that will mean that Idlib will have to be cleared. Then, attention will turn to Afrin, reconnecting Aleppo with eastern Syria.<\/span><\/p>\n

One big problem with this military enforcement of the Astana agreement is that it throws a wrench in the works of Erdogan\u2019s plans for gains in territory, as well as stopping it being utilized as a training center and safe haven for his takfiri mercenaries. It is those whom he has been shipping off to Libya to reinforce the Muslim Brotherhood-associated government in Tripoli. Therein, too, lies part of his problem with the assault being laid on Idlib, as it reduces the number of fighters there for its defense.<\/span><\/p>\n

There is another side to the preceding as well, although not so apparent. There are several points to consider:<\/span><\/p>\n