{"id":1289,"date":"2020-04-13T12:53:31","date_gmt":"2020-04-13T13:53:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/?p=1289"},"modified":"2020-04-13T12:53:31","modified_gmt":"2020-04-13T13:53:31","slug":"covid-19-and-the-eu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/2020\/04\/13\/covid-19-and-the-eu\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID-19 and the EU"},"content":{"rendered":"

It is probably not hyperbole to state that Europe, or specifically the EU, is facing its worst crisis since WWII. That is, at least economically. A little virus has brought on a crisis that neither Brexit nor years of neoliberal austerity could produce. And so far, the COVID-19 crisis is showing up all that has been at the base of the problems with the EU. More to the point, it is showing the north-south divide between EU member states that has been there all along, but which is never really stated in polite company. Just as a divorce tends to bring out the worst in couples who promised \u201cto love, honor and cherish \u2018til death do us part\u201d when they married, so this virus is bringing all the skeletons out of Europe\u2019s closets. And those antagonisms usually revolve around money and possessions. It is quite a spectacle.<\/span><\/p>\n

As the Serbian PM recently stated<\/a><\/span>, after asking for assistance from Brussels for Serbia\u2019s coronavirus crisis and being rebuffed, \u201cEuropean solidarity does not exist. That was a fairy tale on paper. I have sent a special letter to the only ones who can help, and that is China\u2026\u201d The Russians have also sent help there<\/a><\/span> and stand in solidarity with the Serbs.<\/span><\/p>\n

Italy, France and Spain, all heavily affected by the virus, have similarly asked for help from Brussels and have been told there was a snowball\u2019s chance \u2013 that is, until Italian PM Conte threatened to pull the plug on the northern EU states\u2019 little EU game, which would thereby break up the EU. Suddenly, there is money tentatively being made available in the form of a bailout, to the tune of \u20ac500 billion, in the form of the Mes, a so-called \u2018unconditional\u2019 loan. Italy\u2019s Finance Minister has tentatively signed on to it, but Conte has yet to sign off on it to draw any funds. If he is smart, he won\u2019t.<\/span><\/p>\n

To draw on those funds would depend on conditions<\/span><\/a> that would have to be agreed upon by Brussels, conditions that Italy would stipulate. The tentative sign-on by Italy\u2019s Finance Minister has caused a political firestorm within Italy. The one condition that Conte wants to see in place before he signs off on any financial aid is the creation of a European Common Fund, along with the eventual creation of Sustainable Bonds \u2013 Eurobonds<\/a><\/span>. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Of particular interest to note is that Atlanticist-capitalist publications like the Financial Times<\/a><\/span> and Bloomberg<\/a><\/span> state that Eurobonds are a terrible idea and wouldn\u2019t work. But they also point to the very north-south divide in Europe that has caused much of the problem with unity in the EU bloc.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Mes is not likely to be nearly enough, and is also likely to produce punitive austerity measures<\/a><\/span> similar to what we have seen in Greece, hence the opposition to is within Italy. The French economist Fitoussi comments thus<\/a><\/span>, regarding Italy\u2019s tentative sign-on, and further, to the future of the EU:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00abIt is a new disappointment, but I expected it. Europe never met when we needed it. And, therefore, it was foreseeable that the Northern countries would say no to debt mutualisation. But without mutualizing debt, today’s crisis is not resolved. And not doing it is collective suicide<\/em> \u00bb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Then he came to the most obvious conclusion: “If there is no real solidarity, a real mutualisation of the debt, or we will continue to go even further underwater or do something politically incorrect but inevitable: say enough and get out”.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dear Conte, enough pretences, Italy is saved only by doing it yourself<\/em>.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Emphasis added. Now, given all that has happened since the Saturn\/Pluto conjunction in January, the gloves are off in Europe, and the days of reckoning have come for the EU. It is either stand for the principles of the Union and show solidarity and support for all the member states, or say goodbyes, one-by-one, and go through the messy divorce with all the recriminations and hard feelings, like we are seeing with the UK. There would be no amicable separations in what now seems likely to come for the EU. Things can and do change, though.<\/span><\/p>\n

The ideal solution to keep the EU functional would be that vehicle called \u2018corona-bonds\u2019, which would have to eventually be paid back and would have a fixed term, but which would be lent out at much reduced rates for southern European states and higher rates for the north. The states that oppose corona-bonds, predictably, are as follows: Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Austria, the so-called \u2018Frugal Four\u2019. The southern states barracking for them are Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Belgium, France, Slovenia, Luxembourg and Italy, all seen as being less fiscally responsible than their northern neighbors. Is that actually true, though? We\u2019ll look at a bit of the astrology for the EU first and then come back to the issues.<\/span><\/p>\n

Everything that is happening now in the EU is in its astrology (1 Jan 1993, midnight, Brussels, Belgium). When we look at the chart for the EU with the directions (below, bigger<\/a><\/span>), the picture of what is happening stands out very clearly, showing the background influences:<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

To start, we look at the 6th<\/sup>\/12th<\/sup> house axis, the health and services axis, since this is the main focus at the moment. The infection axis (Mars\/Neptune) is sitting on the 6th<\/sup> house cusp (primary services, especially health services), along with the following:<\/span><\/p>\n