{"id":1675,"date":"2021-03-04T14:22:08","date_gmt":"2021-03-04T15:22:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/?p=1675"},"modified":"2021-03-04T14:22:08","modified_gmt":"2021-03-04T15:22:08","slug":"the-ox-on-the-road-the-year-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/2021\/03\/04\/the-ox-on-the-road-the-year-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"The Ox on the Road: the year ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Year of the Iron Ox<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a>Looking into the Void<\/strong>: This year the Aquarius new moon, which marks the start of the lunar New Year, takes place in the Chinese lunar mansion called \u2018The Void\u2019…<\/span><\/p>\n

…which in general is considered to be unlucky. The Jupiter \u2018station\u2019, as it is called (where the \u2018Year Star\u2019 \u2013 Jupiter \u2013 is located) for this year is called \u2018Nu<\/em>\u2019, the \u2018Weaving Maiden\u2019. It, too, is considered to be unlucky. Venus (the Metal Star) and Mercury (the Water Star) are also in Nu<\/em>, \u201cpresaging disputes and quarrels among the family\u201d[i]<\/a> Applied to foreign relations, this is not difficult to see. Biden has already called both Putin and Xi and laid out his tough line about the various domestic issues within those nations with which the United States takes issue. He has also issued what are essentially empty threats about a tough stand on territorial issues. This year will be a double-blind year (having no li chun<\/em>), too, which is generally seen to be unfavorable, meaning plans will be more difficult to push forward.<\/span><\/p>\n

There was a very interesting prognostication from the ancient Chinese Imperial astrology regarding the Jupiter\/Saturn Great Conjunction, setting the tone for this year, which we had last year at the Capricorn solstice: \u201cWhen the Wood Planet (Jupiter) is in conjunction with the Earth Planet (Saturn) there are interior problems (i.e. problems within the State) and famines. The leader will wage war unexpectedly and will be vanquished.\u201d[ii]<\/a> Well, this is what we saw with the United States at the time, with long queues for food, with Trump being vanquished, with internal turmoil, talk of civil war and a riot at the Capitol. The conjunction took place in the lunar mansion \u2018Tou<\/em>\u2019, the \u2018Southern Ladle\u2019, a.k.a. the \u2018Head of the Tortoise\u2019, since it is the 1st<\/sup> lunar mansion in the quadrant of the Black Warrior (Tortoise), the northern quadrant. This is the ladle shape we see in the constellation of Sagittarius.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tou<\/em> is said to be very fortunate,[iii]<\/a> though, and for the US, it may turn out to be so, or perhaps not. Time will tell. But, that lunar mansion is in the 2nd<\/sup> house for the US (finances) and now we are seeing relief measures being pushed through Congress, much to the consternation of Republicans \u2013 karma, we might say. Biden is not repeating Obama\u2019s mistake of not taking advantage of having a full sweep of a Democratic-controlled House, Senate and Executive. For the East, the conjunction followed the more positive indicators for the Great Conjunction and Tou<\/em>, and solidified its gains, with the RCEP, closer cooperation between China and Russia, and the ASEAN nations generally having a little economic growth during 2020 in spite of disruptions to trade and economies. We also saw the deposing of another leader, in Myanmar, which also has Tou<\/em> in its 2nd<\/sup> house.<\/span><\/p>\n

For the West, the lunar New Year began while still in the Iron Rat year, meaning decisions are still to be made about how to move forward. This harks back to what was described earlier about the tetragram for the Iron Ox year, in that this will be a year for gaining experience once decisions have been made. The lunar New Year for the East, including Oceania, began at 03:06 CST (UTC +8:00).<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

<\/a>The general element count<\/strong> for the year is as follows:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Wood<\/strong>: 4 – Inventive, very creative, very artistic<\/span>
\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Fire<\/strong>: 1 – Quiet, domestic<\/span>
\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Earth<\/strong>: 4 – Expansive, bold<\/span>
\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Metal<\/strong>: 3 – Sportive, astute<\/span>
\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Water<\/strong>: 0 – Secretive, cautious, tentative<\/span><\/p>\n

On the whole, then, this year will be quite creative for the East, expansive, bold and astute. The focus will be on domestic issues in the East, as we are seeing in Myanmar, and in China\u2019s domestic policy. There are already bold plans in play in Russia to develop its far eastern territory<\/a><\/span>, focusing on foreign investment and further engagement with China. Russia is moving rapidly now toward realizing its soul motto, \u201cI link two ways\u201d, and it is doing this firstly because it sees the EU these days as being incapable of keeping its agreements and as an unreliable partner and secondly because of Russia\u2019s growing relationship with China, which is spurring her interest in developing its vast resources and infrastructure in her far east. As Pepe Escobar recently pointed out<\/a><\/span>, for these reasons, Russia is driving the Western powers crazy. Russia is disengaging with the West, probably to return its attention when the Western nations have sorted through their growing problems.<\/span><\/p>\n

The secretive side of the year, indicated by the lack of Water, will lie in efforts at regime change by the West towards our favorite \u2018adversaries\u2019. Overt conflict is not indicated this year to a great degree. That is likely to show next year and will be built up behind the scenes this year, as in rebuilding alliances that have suffered during the last four years, efforts at building blocs that can (the US hopes) push back against and stall China\u2019s progress. And this brings us to why China is seen as Public Enemy #1 in the US. It is not because of any military threat. China has no interest in conquering nations militarily. Wherever the West loses influence, it is the Russians who step into the void, not the Chinese. Instead, it is the Chinese economic behemoth \u2013 economic competition, including technological advancement \u2013 that so threatens the economic dominance of the US. Added to this is the steady bypassing of the US SWIFT system and de-dollarization that a growing number of nations are starting to embrace<\/a><\/span>, and we see why the propaganda against \u2018belligerent nations\u2019 is becoming so intense these days. The US is losing its dominance, and that simply cannot be tolerated by the regime in Washington, or their controlling oligarchy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Given the growing animosity coming out of the Beltway, we can probably expect some sort of crisis next year. It will come probably in straits \u2013 the Taiwan Strait, the Strait of Hormuz, the Bosporus, or perhaps even the Bering Strait. These are economic and shipping choke points and have enormous strategic significance. China is beginning to ship more across the Arctic routes via the Bering Strait that Russia is developing, increasingly bypassing the Malacca Strait. The Strait of Hormuz will remain important because of the failure of the war in Yemen to open a pathway to the Red Sea for the shipment of oil. The Bosporus is the only transit route for the Russia Black Sea fleet into the Mediterranean. And if there are any attempts at independence for Taiwan or Western interests seeking to control the area, China has flatly stated there would be war in the Taiwan Strait. The latter is the most likely place possible for a major standoff between major powers, along the vein of the Cuban Missile Crisis we saw in 1962. The same remains true for the Strait of Hormuz, based in the 60-year cycle.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/a>Reviewing last year’s forecast<\/strong>: In the forecast from last year we had the following:<\/span><\/p>\n