{"id":1718,"date":"2021-03-26T17:20:58","date_gmt":"2021-03-26T18:20:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/?p=1718"},"modified":"2021-03-26T17:23:58","modified_gmt":"2021-03-26T18:23:58","slug":"shoigus-other-workshop","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/2021\/03\/26\/shoigus-other-workshop\/","title":{"rendered":"Shoigu\u2019s other workshop"},"content":{"rendered":"

Following from the post about Syria<\/a><\/span>, we move on to consider the situation in Ukraine, and whether or not Ukrainian and NATO partners would rather speak with Lavrov or with Shoigu. It would appear at the moment that Ukrainians, at least the ones in power in Kiev and nationalist minorities, would prefer to speak with Shoigu, given the points outlined in the previous article. There is also an ulterior motive with the NATO forces \u2013 largely an Atlanticist contingent \u2013 in pushing for a conflict in eastern Ukraine. We will outline what that might be here, as well as what the astrology is showing for Ukraine, which is looking to be increasingly fractious.<\/span><\/p>\n

Before we launch into our investigations, it is useful to know a little of the history and ethnicity of what is known as today\u2019s Ukraine. The Ukraine, translated as \u2018the Borderlands\u2019, has had a long and troubled history, having undergone many transformations over the centuries and only very recently having any kind of independence or sense of statehood. It could be argued it has yet to have any sense of a unified statehood. Ukraine has been variously divided among empires since the 13th<\/sup> century, thus seeing a mix of cultures over that period. There is a primary cultural divide in Ukraine across the Dnieper River, with the west of the nation being more aligned with Poland and Romania.<\/span><\/p>\n

The western part of Ukraine is comprised on the regions of Galicia and Volhynia, which are closely tied to Poland by historical precedent and culture, while there are two smaller regions \u2013 Carpathian Ruthenia and Bukovina \u2013 more closely associated with the old Czechoslovakia and Romania, respectively. The west of the Ukraine is where the nationalist factions of Ukraine are located, while eastern Ukraine is more sympathetic with Russia and is more populated with ethnic Russians. Hence, we see already the origins of the various conflicts within Ukraine, and which have yet to be resolved. That brings us to the present day.<\/span><\/p>\n

After WWII Ukraine attained its present borders. In 1954, control of Crimea was transferred from the Russian to the Ukrainian Soviet republics, a move that remains controversial to this day. The Russians maintained the naval base for their Black Sea fleet at the port of Sevastopol on the Crimean Peninsula by treaty. But regardless of the controlling nation, Crimea had been majority ethnic Russian since its days in the Russian Empire. That was a big deciding factor in Crimea\u2019s return to Russia in 2014, along with the little matter of the naval base.<\/span><\/p>\n

Since 2014, Russia\u2019s relations with the West have soured considerably. The coup in Ukraine in 2014 \u2013 labelled the \u2018Revolution of Dignity\u2019 by Ukrainians \u2013 with the subsequent instalment of a Russophobic government in Kiev, resulted in the eventual return of Crimea to Russian control, which it had held from 1783 to 1991, with a brief independence for Ukraine from 1917 to 1921. With the 2014 coup, there were designs by NATO powers to close the naval base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, with the aim of converting it to a NATO base, thus shutting off Russian naval control of the Black Sea and hence the Mediterranean via the Bosporus.<\/span><\/p>\n

The other aim of the NATO bloc was to have a large NATO state right on the Russian border. Russia saw this clearly and moved quickly to garner support for the majority Russian demographic in Crimea to re-join the Russian fold, which they voted to do by a large majority, fearing what would happen once the Ukrainian nationalists made their way to the peninsula. The Western nations and NATO forces especially see the loss of Crimea as an \u2018illegal annexation by Russia\u2019, while Russians largely saw it as a return of Crimea to the fold. In effect, the Russian establishment saw the return of Crimea as a major security issue, in terms of Realpolitik, and moved quickly to secure the peninsula, subsequently connecting it to the Russian mainland via the Kerch Strait Bridge.<\/span><\/p>\n

All the preceding relating to the return of Crimea to Russia and the 2014 coup has spoiled any plans by NATO states to have a large contiguous nation, rich in resources, right on Russia\u2019s borders. It would have placed NATO bases and forces within 500 km from Moscow \u2013 a short flight by missile \u2013 and only 19 km across the Kerch Strait from Crimea to Russia. The Russians clearly were not going to simply roll over and let NATO take over the whole of Ukraine. The US and EU badly miscalculated Russia\u2019s response to the situation in Ukraine as a result of the coup, thinking Russia to be weak at the time. This brings us to consider the ulterior motive for possibly starting a conflict with Russia in Ukraine now.<\/span><\/p>\n

There are several factors at play in considering Russia, NATO and Ukraine, as follows:<\/span><\/p>\n