{"id":1907,"date":"2021-09-24T14:10:12","date_gmt":"2021-09-24T15:10:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/?p=1907"},"modified":"2021-09-24T14:10:12","modified_gmt":"2021-09-24T15:10:12","slug":"iran-at-the-crossroads","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/2021\/09\/24\/iran-at-the-crossroads\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran at the crossroads"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: 'book antiqua', palatino;\">On 17 Sep 2021, the procedure was started for Iran to become a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). This comes as the culmination of what will come to be known as one of the most terrible months in foreign policy for the Anglo West in recent memory. But first, one of my faves from Cream, which will give a hint to the purpose of this post:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Xch-3Wwl9HE\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Xch-3Wwl9HE\" width=\"560\" height=\"314\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/a><!--more--><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: 'book antiqua', palatino;\">To recap and set the scenario for this post, we had <span style=\"color: #993300;\"><a style=\"color: #993300;\" href=\"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/2021\/08\/18\/the-saigon-moment-v-2-0\/\">the epic fail of the Afghanistan pull-out<\/a><\/span>, Iran sending fuel oil tankers directly to Syria, so far unopposed and undermining the Caesar Act, and then the AUKUS debacle with France, which is giving Western Europe some serious food for thought, or perhaps better said, some bitter medicine to swallow. Iran\u2019s admission to full membership of the SCO is no doubt causing serious angst in the Beltway and London, and we will look at that here. But more than that, the Iranian accession to the SCO means long-term prosperity for all of Asia, not to mention weakening NATO. We will look at that here, too.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: 'book antiqua', palatino;\">But first, a hat tip goes to Pepe Escobar, whose <span style=\"color: #993300;\"><a style=\"color: #993300;\" href=\"https:\/\/vk.com\/pepeasia?w=wall578617852_9590\">recent post on VK<\/a><\/span> gave me the opening for this post, along with confirming a long-range perspective I have held on the region for a while now. It is not so much that Iran is at the crossroads, though it is. As it stands now, Iran <em>is<\/em> or will be the crossroads for the Central and South Asian transit hubs, integral parts of the Belt and Road and the North-South Economic Corridor between the Indian Ocean, the Caspian basin, points west to Europe and Russia to the north. It is best <span style=\"color: #993300;\"><a style=\"color: #993300;\" href=\"http:\/\/reconasia.wpengine.com\/competing-visions\/\">illustrated with the picture below<\/a><\/span>:<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: 'book antiqua', palatino;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1910 size-full aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/csis_reconnecting_asia.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"525\" height=\"406\" srcset=\"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/csis_reconnecting_asia.jpg 525w, https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/csis_reconnecting_asia-300x232.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: 'book antiqua', palatino;\">First, though, we will start with what Iran\u2019s SCO status will mean for the US. The transits for the US on the 17<sup>th<\/sup> are telling, as seen below (<span style=\"color: #993300;\"><a style=\"color: #993300;\" href=\"http:\/\/malvinartley.com\/PDF%20Files\/charts\/us_iran_sco.png\">bigger<\/a><\/span>):<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1911 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/us_iran_sco-1024x571.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"525\" height=\"293\" srcset=\"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/us_iran_sco-1024x571.png 1024w, https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/us_iran_sco-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/us_iran_sco-768x428.png 768w, https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/us_iran_sco-1536x857.png 1536w, https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/us_iran_sco.png 1777w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: 'book antiqua', palatino;\">The three standouts for the 17<sup>th<\/sup> are the Mars transit over the US Midheaven, the retrograde transit of Saturn on the US South Node and the retrograde transit of Neptune square the US Mars. The Mars transit completes the activation of the Pluto direction to the MC of the US, giving the following: \u201cA great <em>striving for the attainment of power<\/em>, the <em>urge to dominate other people<\/em>. &#8211; The <strong>misfortune to be forced into an uncongenial profession or occupation. &#8211; A crisis in one&#8217;s career<\/strong>.\u201d The bolded bits apply to the SCO and Iran and will apply into the future. The Iran\/SCO move has hit home in the Beltway and will no doubt drive the final nail in the coffin of the JCPOA.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: 'book antiqua', palatino;\">The italicized bits apply to what the US was seeking to achieve with the AUKUS ploy, the latter to be addressed in a separate post. Suffice it to say, for now, it will come to be seen as a major strategic error on the part of both the US and Australia. More on that in a bit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: 'book antiqua', palatino;\">Returning to Iran, it will no longer need the JCPOA into the future. When its full accession to the SCO is confirmed, it will be militarily secure, as the SCO is a security agreement. Its economic future will likewise be secured, along with <span style=\"color: #993300;\"><a style=\"color: #993300;\" href=\"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/2021\/04\/16\/the-iran-china-comprehensive-strategic-partnership\/\">Iran\u2019s comprehensive strategic partnership<\/a><\/span> with China. Consider, too, that the Saudis, Qataris and Egyptians are all now <span style=\"color: #993300;\"><a style=\"color: #993300;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.globaltimes.cn\/page\/202109\/1234585.shtml\">new dialog partners with the SCO<\/a><\/span>, meaning as time goes forward relations between Iran and the latter three nations must become normalized and non-antagonistic. <span style=\"color: #993300;\"><a style=\"color: #993300;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.strategic-culture.org\/news\/2021\/09\/20\/that-other-reset-unfolding-across-west-central-asia\/\">The strategic map of the Middle East is being re-drawn<\/a><\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: 'book antiqua', palatino;\">Saturn\u2019s transit over the south node of the US adds a heavy note to the picture in the US, showing the world\u2019s reaction to the Afghan pullout, the AUKUS deal and US foreign policy in general. The South Node indicates a line of least resistance in one\u2019s relationships, one which is meant to be transcended. With Saturn there it represents the roosting of one\u2019s karmic chickens and a big reminder to move on from the past and set one\u2019s house in order. Saturn on the South Node has been called \u2018the master of tragedy\u2019. The great tragedy will be if the policy wonks in the Beltway think-tank-land still manage to set administration policy. We also see the tragedy in the Afghan fail, among other events to many to mention here.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: 'book antiqua', palatino;\">Finally, the retrograde transit of Neptune squaring the US Mars and opposite its natal placement shows the weakness of US military planning and the hollow rhetoric that comes of it. That was in full evidence in the Afghan pullout. It also shows in a lack of vision in the AUKUS deal, mentioned before, as well as a disconnect from reality. There are a few more realistic heads in Washington, as in Generals <span style=\"color: #993300;\"><a style=\"color: #993300;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rt.com\/russia\/534794-war-china-destroy-world\/\">Hyten<\/a><\/span> and Milley, neither of whom want to see a war with either China or Russia.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: 'book antiqua', palatino;\">Milley is being pilloried by conservatives and Trump supporters (the latter two are not necessarily the same) at the moment for his phone calls behind Trump\u2019s back during the final days of Trump\u2019s term in office. Opinions vary on whether or not Milley <span style=\"color: #993300;\"><a style=\"color: #993300;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.strategic-culture.org\/news\/2021\/09\/18\/reason-not-treason-general-pulled-rank-trump-avoid-china-war\/\">acted with good sense<\/a> <a style=\"color: #993300;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/mark-milley-accused-treason-china-republicans-urge-joe-biden-fire-him-1629222\">or was treasonous<\/a><\/span>. That may seem out of place with our current considerations, but it goes to the following point: It would be a fool\u2019s errand for the US or other Western powers to try to re-enter Afghanistan or to seek a military solution with Iran regarding the JCPOA, and the US military, at least, knows it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: 'book antiqua', palatino;\">There are two little teasers here that will be addressed in a future post, but which bear watching over the next few years, as in three years. Currently, we see directed Neptune square the Moon, the latter ruling the 8<sup>th<\/sup> house of the US (foreign banking, losses, bankruptcy, the outcome of lawsuits), reflecting the uncertainty of the US financial system and the current gaslighting we hear in the media about <span style=\"color: #993300;\"><a style=\"color: #993300;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/economy\/united-states-economic-snapshot\/\">the supposed strength of the US economy<\/a><\/span>. Further, the <span style=\"color: #993300;\"><a style=\"color: #993300;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.globaltimes.cn\/page\/202109\/1234617.shtml\">SCO member states are looking toward settling their transactions in local currencies<\/a><\/span>, which will bypass any US sanctions on their trade inside the bloc. That direction of Neptune to the US Moon also showed the loss of income (Moon\/8<sup>th<\/sup> house) from drugs (Neptune) that the loss of Afghanistan entails.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: 'book antiqua', palatino;\">Then, within a couple of years, directed Saturn will come within orb of the conjunction with the US Mars for the first time in US history. This will be quite significant, as it describes the following dynamic: \u201c<strong>Instability, feelings of inferiority<\/strong>, misdirected energy. &#8211; <strong>Unfortunate consequences as a result of a weak will<\/strong>, <strong>lasting weakness or illness<\/strong>\u2026.\u201d It can also indicate a significant naval loss. The natal Mars\/Neptune square in the US chart is the prime indicator of the American reverence for the military and its sense of military supremacy, as well as its sometimes militant idealism. In fact, that direction of Saturn could well indicate a military defeat of any kind, coming as it does in the US 7<sup>th<\/sup> house (open enemies). When directed Saturn was conjunct the US Descendant, <span style=\"color: #993300;\"><a style=\"color: #993300;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-mideast-crisis-russia-idUSKCN0RU0MG20150930\">Russia began its intervention in Syria<\/a><\/span>, thus bringing an abrupt end to the \u2018<span style=\"color: #993300;\"><a style=\"color: #993300;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.salon.com\/2007\/10\/12\/wesley_clark\/\">seven countries in five years<\/a><\/span>\u2019 plan.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: 'book antiqua', palatino;\">With the above, we leave the US aside for now and have a look instead at Iran. The chart for Iran on the 17<sup>th<\/sup> with directions and transits is below (<span style=\"color: #993300;\"><a style=\"color: #993300;\" href=\"http:\/\/malvinartley.com\/PDF%20Files\/charts\/iran_sco_membership.png\">bigger<\/a><\/span>):<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1912 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/iran_sco_membership-1024x569.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"525\" height=\"292\" srcset=\"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/iran_sco_membership-1024x569.png 1024w, https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/iran_sco_membership-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/iran_sco_membership-768x427.png 768w, https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/iran_sco_membership-1536x854.png 1536w, https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/iran_sco_membership.png 1775w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: 'book antiqua', palatino;\">The immediate standout is the directed Saturn\/Pluto midpoint to the Meridian axis; \u201c<strong>The desire to rise from difficult circumstances through the application of tenacity and endurance<\/strong>, severity, one-sided-ness, <strong>self-sacrifice<\/strong>. &#8211; An ascetic person, <strong>a magician or adept<\/strong>.\u201d The Iranians have certainly embodied the bolded text in the quote.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: 'book antiqua', palatino;\">Then, there is a combination which could easily be read negatively, but in essence represents a great healing for the nation, represented in the direction of Mars to Iran\u2019s Chiron (the \u2018wounded healer\u2019) and a retrograde transit of Saturn square to Chiron, what the Magi Society calls a \u2018heartbreak transit\u2019). Instead, what we have in the combination is, \u201cEnergetic people who are able to overcome the greatest difficulties\u201d, tying in with the Saturn\/Pluto midpoint. Iran\u2019s accession to the SCO is hardly heartbreaking for Iran so much as it is for nations like Israel and the US.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: 'book antiqua', palatino;\">Coming back to the JCPOA, though, there is another little wrinkle in the JCPOA story. The member states of the SCO are firm in their policy that the JCPOA should be adhered to, even if the US refuses to re-enter the agreement. This was outlined in <span style=\"color: #993300;\"><a style=\"color: #993300;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mea.gov.in\/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl\/34275\/Dushanbe_Declaration_on_the_Twentieth_Anniversary_of_the_Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation\">point 25 of the Dushanbe Declaration<\/a><\/span>, posted on the 17<sup>th<\/sup>. This will no doubt please Washington, to a degree, but there will be no negotiations on Iran\u2019s missile defenses. If the US wants the JCPOA, then it will have to come back in unilaterally, just as it left it. So, even though Iran will more than likely abide by the JCPOA, the US is unlikely to re-enter it, keeping sanctions in place. However, Israel may be a concern there and may push the US to drop the sanctions and re-enter the agreement. <span style=\"color: #993300;\"><a style=\"color: #993300;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rt.com\/op-ed\/535152-cradle-revolution-assad-liberated-west\/\">Why that may be is as follows<\/a><\/span>:<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: 'book antiqua', palatino;\">The Daraa province in Syria \u2013 the so-called \u2018cradle of the Syrian revolution\u2019 \u2013 has for the first time since 2011 (the start of the proxy war there) been returned to the control of the Syrian government. The SAA is now in firm control there. Daraa was pivotal to US energy and resource-theft plans in Syria. <span style=\"color: #993300;\"><a style=\"color: #993300;\" href=\"http:\/\/energy-cg.com\/MiddleEast\/Syria\/Syria_Turkey_Kurds_ProposedSafeZone_Image1x1_Oct19_EnergyConsutlingGroup_web.png\">Daraa was a key energy and transport hub for Syria into Jordan<\/a><\/span> prior to the war. Daraa borders the Golan Heights and Israel had been staging its air attacks on Syrian territory from southern Lebanese air space throughout the war.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: 'book antiqua', palatino;\">Daraa province was a buffer between the Golan, occupied by Israel, and Syria. The SAA will soon be looking down directly on the border of the Golan. That sector will be closed to Israel when Syrian air defenses enter the area. <span style=\"color: #993300;\"><a style=\"color: #993300;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=5zhFK88LKHw\">The Iranians and Hezbollah will probably be asked to stay out of the area by the Syrian government<\/a><\/span>, so as not to escalate tensions unnecessarily as the liberation of Idlib and northeastern Syria proceeds. The return of Daraa to Syrian control is a major setback for Israel, though. The focus of the SAA will now turn to the liberation of Idlib.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: 'book antiqua', palatino;\">All of the above factors are interrelated. We are watching a delicate balance of interests between the greater and regional powers throughout Southwest and Central Asia, accelerated with the coming accession of Iran into full membership in the SCO, along with the added observer states, mentioned previously. As the US and other Anglo nations turn their attention to China, the Southwestern and Central Asian regions will benefit and become the biggest economic bloc in the world, and peaceful at that.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: 'book antiqua', palatino;\">The West has lost Central Asia and is fast losing its grip on energy-rich Southwest Asia. This is the greater message of Iran and the SCO. For Iran, it is now onwards and upwards. Meanwhile the West moves into a period, first of denial and leter of self-examination. But if all goes to plan, Iran will truly become the crossroads of the New Silk Road. Then, the US in particular may well be lamenting the <span style=\"color: #993300;\"><a style=\"color: #993300;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.azlyrics.com\/lyrics\/ericclapton\/crossroads108852.html\">lyric of the song<\/a><\/span> at the start of this post, regarding the Iranian crossroads \u2013 \u201cNobody seemed to know me. Everybody passed me by\u2026And I\u2019m standing at the crossroads, believe I\u2019m sinking down\u201d. It doesn\u2019t have to be that way. The world is not a zero-sum game.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'book antiqua', palatino;\">Featured pic of the <span style=\"color: #993300;\"><a style=\"color: #993300;\" href=\"https:\/\/commons.wikimedia.org\/w\/index.php?curid=72750861\">Azadi Tower<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On 17 Sep 2021, the procedure was started for Iran to become a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). This comes as the culmination of what will come to be known as one of the most terrible months in foreign policy for the Anglo West in recent memory. But first, one of my &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/2021\/09\/24\/iran-at-the-crossroads\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Iran at the crossroads&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1908,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[302,192,1],"tags":[469,11,26,22,4,186],"class_list":["post-1907","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics","category-military","category-uncategorized","tag-afghanistan","tag-astrology","tag-belt-and-road","tag-china","tag-iran","tag-sco"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1907"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1907"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1907\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1922,"href":"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1907\/revisions\/1922"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1908"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1907"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1907"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1907"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}