{"id":2230,"date":"2022-09-20T14:15:20","date_gmt":"2022-09-20T15:15:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/?p=2230"},"modified":"2022-09-20T17:07:35","modified_gmt":"2022-09-20T18:07:35","slug":"ukraines-dark-winter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/malvinartley.com\/blog.malvinartley.com\/2022\/09\/20\/ukraines-dark-winter\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine\u2019s dark winter?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Something big is about to go down in Ukraine. This will be the first of a two-part post, once we know more. But for the present, we deal with what has taken place in the last few weeks there. A distinct change in the character of the conflict in Ukraine has been noted. Starting at the end of August Ukrainian forces backed and partially manned by NATO forces launched counteroffensives, first in the Kherson region and later in the Kharkov Oblast. The latter was hailed in Western media as a great success to obsequious fanfare. Across social media, Ukraine supporters were gloating on \u2018the knockout blow to Putin\u2019 and how his fall was imminent (not likely, BTW) and Russian supporters were initially thrown into panic. As is usual in such cases, the media reporting was a psyop. The truth on the ground is somewhat different, which we will examine here.<\/span><\/p>\n

What follows will not be easy for Western readers to read, much less accept, if one\u2019s only source of news has been mainstream reporting. But over the next few months the reasoning being outlined in the following paragraphs will become clear. Instead, to know something closer to the truth, one must read contrarian voices to the MSM<\/a><\/span> narrative:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cAlexander Mercouris and Alex Christaforu of The Duran<\/a><\/span>, Brian Berletic of New Atlas<\/a><\/span>, Dima of Military Summary<\/a><\/span>, Moon of Alabama<\/a><\/span>, Andrei Martyanov<\/a><\/span>, Larry Johnson<\/a><\/span>\u2026This group often, in a much smaller version of the Iraq War and pre-financial crisis blogospheres, promote and critique each other\u2019s work. There are some other prominent commentators who present their own views and don\u2019t interact much\/at all with these YouTube and blog commentators, such as Scott Ritter<\/a><\/span>, Douglas MacGregor, and the Twitterati like Russians with Attitude<\/a><\/span> and @AZmilitary1<\/a><\/span>.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

We might add The Saker<\/a><\/span>\u2019s blog to that list, as well as occasional interviews with Jacques Baud on The Postil<\/em><\/a><\/span>. These men are ex-military-intelligence scions, mostly retired and who live in the West. Some of them have had direct military experience. A few of them have more intimate knowledge of Russia, too. They know the ins and outs of NATO, the CIA\/MI6 duo and have watched this situation as it presents in Ukraine now evolve over years. The CIA has used Ukraine as a its proxy, as a means to keep Eastern Europe destabilized and against Russia for the past 75 years<\/a><\/span> (must-read for background).<\/span><\/p>\n

To the present, these current Ukrainian counteroffensives (COs) have been hailed as game-changers in the West. Indeed, they were. They have changed the character of the conflict markedly. It is claimed in the West the Russians were caught completely off guard with the Kharkov CO and routed. On the Russian side it is claimed, and not without reason, that what happened in Kharkov especially was a planned retreat that has resulted in a trap for Ukraine, where Ukrainian troops are now being steadily ground down, with high casualty rates. There are also reports on Telegram channels that the Russians have now begun to retake the territories in Kharkov recently overrun by the Ukrainians \u2013 a counter-counteroffensive<\/a><\/span>. What is the truth?<\/span><\/p>\n

The chart for the Russian Special Military Operation (SMO) is below, with transits (bigger<\/a><\/span>):<\/span><\/p>\n

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The chart marks the start of the Kharkov counteroffensive, the more important of the two. There are several points of note. Saturn had nearly reached the point of the start of the SMO by its retrograde transit. At the same time, transiting Ceres opposed both the transiting and natal placement of the SMO chart. Ceres had opposed the natal Saturn at the start of the Kherson CO, with transiting Saturn not yet within orb. But of even greater moment was the beginning of the retrograde transit of Uranus square the natal Saturn. What we see with these combinations is that September marks a fundamental change in the hostilities and a turning point. But this chart cannot be read in isolation.<\/span><\/p>\n

The chart for the Kharkov Ukrainian CO is shown below, with directions and transits to Ukraine\u2019s chart, below (bigger<\/a><\/span>):<\/span><\/p>\n

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This chart tells Ukraine\u2019s story as a result of these COs. They were not Ukraine\u2019s idea. They were the result of political pressure from the West, who are now pushing Ukraine to show some gumption in the fight and that they can hold their own against Russia, even reverse Russian gains. To hear it from the Western press that is exactly what is happening. But on the ground circumstances are quite different: Ukrainian forces are being pounded. What seemed to be a success for Ukraine in Kharkov was a Pyrrhic victory<\/a><\/span>. They will eventually be pushed back.<\/span><\/p>\n

That the Ukrainians are not doing well at all is shown by several factors in the chart. Firstly we note the transit of Neptune opposite Ukraine\u2019s Mars, indicating a weakening of force. It also indicates a military deception. The Neptune transit also activates a direction of Uranus by sesquisquare to Ukraine\u2019s Mars. We thus have the combination, Nep=Mars\/Ura: \u201cCunning and deceitfulness<\/strong>, a low and mean way of acting, the desire to harm other people<\/strong>, a person with bad intentions. – A swoon or fainting fit when overtaxing one’s strength, a fit of rage or frenzy, also raving madness<\/strong>, (a car accident).\u201d Well, it is war, after all, and deception is a big part of warfare. But it was the Russians who provided the deception<\/a><\/span>:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cMaskirovka<\/em> is a Russian word meaning literally \u201cmasking\u201d or \u201cdisguise\u201d, but in the context of Russian military doctrine, it incorporates a wide spectrum of undertakings designed to deceive the enemy regarding strengths, weaknesses, disposition of forces, and the intentions of those forces.<\/span><\/p>\n

In its simplest expression, it echoes the famous dictum from Sun Tzu\u2019s The Art of War:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cAll warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near<\/em>.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The Kherson counteroffensive was straightforward and the Russians held their ground because it was strategically important, being the gateway to Crimea. Plus, the Russian positions were well fortified. Kharkov was a different matter. It was not so strategically important save for one or two cities \u2013 which did not fall, incidentally \u2013 but would have been a big victory for Ukraine had they been able to pull it off.<\/span><\/p>\n

What happened in the days leading to the Kharkov operation is that the Russians made a strategic retreat. It was controlled and planned beforehand. The main troops and the civilians who wanted to leave were withdrawn a couple of days beforehand. The Russians provided the Ukrainians \u2013 actually NATO \u2013 with a tempting target, ill-defended, with a weak front. The Russians had only a few of their National Guard troops in the area. It was a cake walk, so NATO thought. The Ukrainians and NATO thought they had captured what was a large piece of territory and routed the Russians, when in fact they had been lured into the open, in what is now effectively a closing trap, where they are being savaged<\/a><\/span>. We are told nothing of this in the West.<\/span><\/p>\n

Instead, we see the other side of the Neptune transit to Ukraine\u2019s Mars \u2013 the psyop. We hear about \u2018the great victory for Ukraine\u2019. From the just linked article regarding this \u2018great victory\u2019:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cDelusional reports of hundreds of abandoned tanks, thousands of casualties, and tens of thousands of captured Russian soldiers are circulating widely, willingly believed by those whose biases find them pleasing. Western think-tank monkeys and retired-generals-for-hire move from one mainstream news studio to the next spouting fantastical nonsense about next liberating the Donbass, then Crimea, followed by deposing Putin and hauling him before a tribunal at The Hague.<\/span><\/p>\n

And if that were not enough, many have even begun to openly discuss the long-desired western pipe dream of dismantling Russia altogether; cutting it up into a dozen or more smaller republics that will then obediently fall in line with the rest of the \u201crules-based world order\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

These generals and think tanks are only now beginning to see the other shoe drop. The Ukrainian forces went all the way to the Russian border at one point, where they had started to shell villages in Russia. Then the gloves began to be loosened. On September 11 \u2013 in a symbolic poke at the US\/NATO forces \u2013 Russia began putting the lights out in eastern Ukraine in Ukrainian-held areas. The Donbas had no trouble with their lights.<\/span><\/p>\n

Within the space of a couple of hours Russian Kinzhal (\u2018Dagger\u2019) missiles launched from the Caspian and Black Seas began to take out power stations. And those strikes continue. They have also bombed the Karachun dam on the Inhulets River<\/a><\/span> in Krivoy Rog<\/a><\/span> area, the birthplace of Zelenskyy. That city is now without running water and is flooded. The dam the Russians hit was a legitimate military target<\/a><\/span>, by the rules of war.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Ukrainians had lowered the water level by means of that dam so they could place pontoon bridges across the river. The increased flow of excess water from the destroyed dam has washed away those pontoon bridges, cutting off access and\/or resupply to the troops of the counteroffensives in Kherson and a rumored counteroffensive to retake the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, the latter which has now been placed in cold shut down<\/a><\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

There is a major point to all the preceding that has to be taken into account, relating to propaganda. What we hear about the Russian SMO in the Western media, which is by and large controlled by the Americans, is designed for several purposes. We might list the main points as follows:<\/span><\/p>\n