Most of us would have heard now about the downing of the Russian IL-20 surveillance plane over Syria. The event took place on 17 Sep this year, and I covered the event briefly in the Libra letter. As it turns out, that event has marked a key turning point in the Syrian war, and one which may yet lead to a large escalation in the conflict, with possible disastrous consequences, not to scaremonger here. But the reality of the situation now is that the Russians have been backed into a corner in Syria now by the foolish actions of a few Israeli pilots and the hubris of the Israeli Defense Force (IDF). Russia has established an unofficial no-fly zone over the Syrian coast, has supplied Syria with with its S-300 missile system, which John Bolton of the US called a ‘major escalation’ (?) and blamed the Iranians (?) for the downing of the plane. For its part, the IDF has blamed the Syrians for the downed plane. Russia, on the other hand, has supplied pretty irrefutable evidence that the fault for the incident lies squarely with Israel. As a result, the Russians have stated that any unauthorized aircraft flying through their no-fly zone will be shot down. It would appear that the gloves are off now. If Putin backs down from the next provocation the consequences would be too much and Russia would be set back for years in its foreign policy. The Israelis, Saudis, Emiratis and neocons in Washington may soon have their escalated war, but at what cost? We await the next chemical weapons performance or for an Israeli plane to be shot down. Hopefully not. Continue reading “The wisdom of poking at bears…”
