Insanity: Def – doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.
The ‘Stache is up to his old tricks again. This time he wants a Thanksgiving turkey, as in regime change in Turkey. John Bolton, America’s favorite neocon, has decided Turkey doesn’t have enough democracy, so he has put together a little project to help Erdoğan see the errors of his ways and play nice with NATO. There is the Middle East to subdue, more mercenaries to train and well, NATO has to be united and strong to be able to go up against China and Russia. Oh, and let’s not forget Iran. Turkey must be on board, like fully on board. But The Sultan has other plans, it seems. To help things along, then, we have the latest in regime change projects: The Turkish Democracy Project. We can be certain the Turks will be most appreciative for ‘Big Mo’ Bolton’s help.
Bolton recently sent out a tweet hailing his new project:
It’s time to sound the alarm on #Turkey. Under an authoritarian leader, a once-reliable NATO ally is turning its back on democracy and embracing #Russia. I’m pleased to join the @turkish_project advisory council to shine a light on the darkening situation.
Let’s have a quick look at the TDM (Turkish Democracy Project) staff. Its Executive Director, Madeleine Joelson, has a Master’s in English literature and a BA in government. She’ll be managing and planning all the programs. We wonder if she speaks Turkish. She is working on her PhD in English lit. She is currently on the faculty of English at Princeton University.
One of the founders is one Aykan Erdemir, who has reputed ties to FETO, the Fetullah Gulen group, who was said to be behind the 2016 coup attempt on Erdoğan. Erdemir is currently on the run from the Sultan, having had all his assets seized after fleeing Turkey.
On the Board of Advisors for the TDM, we have the man Bolton himself, along with an ex-CIA deputy director, a member of the CFR, an Italian ex-Foreign Minister, Joe Lieberman, Jeb Bush and Iran hawk Mark D. Wallace as CEO, among other members. All of them are American except for the one Italian, and as far as I know, none of them cite any specialization in Turkish culture, affairs or policy. So far, so good.
The American government has such a love of democracy that it has brought said democracy to any nation that opposes Washington’s views and policies. But it also shares that love with a number of autocratic regimes across the world. In point of fact, the US has no problem with autocratic regimes so long as they toe the American policy line and moreover help to spread democracy worldwide. So, why does Turkey need more democracy? The charges laid against Erdoğon by the West, from the TDP site are as follows:
President Erdogan’s Turkey has threatened its regional neighbors, supported extremist groups, deployed men and material in support of conflicts ranging from the Middle East to Europe, persecuted ethnic minorities, destroyed the free press, jailed and killed political opponents, eroded democratic institutions, and spread corruption throughout Turkey’s institutions. At the same time, the Turkish economy has seen a severe economic downturn as a result of Erdogan’s policies. As rule of law is degraded and corruption runs rampant, Erdogan and his oligarchs continue to amass wealth and power. In 2020, Freedom House officially declared Turkey “not free.”
The statement is basically true. There is no denying Turkey has taken a decidedly autocratic turn under Erdoğon, even though the statement made by the TDP is a bit of pot and kettle double –speak.Here is a basic roundup of the situation:
Turkey had long served as the eastern flank of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and a key outpost for U.S. operations in the Middle East. The Turkish military purchased $16.6 billion in American weapons from the end of the Cold War to 2021, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute arms trade database.
But the Erdoğan government has run afoul of Washington in recent years. It has picked fights with European allies over energy resources, bought Russian missiles, taken a hardline stance against Israel, and allowed U.S. rivals to evade economic sanctions.
The most dramatic confrontation took place in October 2019. While the Trump administration had hoped to enlist Turkey as a partner in the Syrian civil war, Turkey instead attacked U.S.-backed Kurdish forces, creating a humanitarian crisis and embarrassing the United States.
Emphasis added. The Washington establishment can overlook a lot of things so long as a nation stands shoulder to shoulder with them in a conflict, but to actually embarrass them? – well, that’s a red line. The Turkish attack against the Kurds appears to have been the final straw. Now, Erdoğan either has to go or he has to be shown the error of his ways. And ‘Stash Man is just the one to bring the Sultan to heel, or so he thinks. And that brings us to Turkey’s and Erdoğan’s charts.
In a blog on this site from two years ago, we looked forward for Turkey as to transits and directions and saw that there would be no significant changes to Turkey’s government, aside from elections, until at least 2025. That basically rules out regime change for Turkey. That alone tells us that Bolton’s pet project is not likely to go very far. In fact, if he tries to push it forward, it actually may backfire and rally the Turks around the Sultan.
All that being said, in March of next year, an interesting set of astrological indicators presents itself. The chart is below (bigger):
We find transiting Saturn opposite Turkey’s Neptune, the latter ruling the 10th house (sitting government) and squaring the natal Jupiter and Venus conjunction. In addition, directed Saturn is to Turkey’s Ceres – a difficult decision to be made and a turning point in national destiny – activated by a Mars transit on 12 Mar 2022. However, transiting Jupiter is on the Turkish MC in the days preceding and exact on the 12th. That is not a setup for regime change, but instead a recognition of realities.
Elections in Turkey will not be held until 18 Jun 2023. So, the transits and directions for Turkey show something other than an election result. We note in that chart the Saturn transit is taking place in the nation’s 9th house, indicating a change in foreign relations or perhaps constitutional matters. However, the direction of Saturn is in the 8th house, which involves foreign banking. There has been quite a lot of speculation as to which way Erdoğan will turn, as in to the East or staying with the West. If he turns East then that will probably mean turning away from the SWIFT system to a degree. Big Mo’ and Uncle Joe will definitely be unhappy then. What is happening with Erdoğan’s chart at that time?
Erdoğan’s chart with transits and directions for 12 Mar 2022 is below (bigger):
Erdoğan, for all his faults, is a survivor politically. That shows in his transits and directions for next year. That said, it is questionable which would be better regarding the TDP — to leave Erdogan in place or to topple him and replace him with a NATO yes-man. The natal Vertex/Pluto conjunction, which gives him his great insight politically, is activated by a Jupiter transit. In turn his directed vertex is aspected to his natal Jupiter. He has decisions to make, for certain, shown by the transit of Uranus opposite his Saturn. But transiting Jupiter is also sextile his Ascendant and making a square to his natal Saturn. His confidence will be riding high, perhaps a little too high, though with the Saturn/MC midpoint to his Ascendant reality is being forced upon him. One of the indications for that direction is , “suffering from others, being placed in unfortunate circumstances”. That would be the US administration at the moment and Bolton’s little regime change club. He will survive it.
The following year at the election he will have the directed Saturn/MC midpoint to his Uranus: “Emotional excitability, the desire to attain one’s objectives at all costs. Making the greatest efforts. – A sudden emotional or occupational crisis, an emotional shock, mourning and bereavement.”
The US wants the Sultan to stay in Afghanistan to watch over the airport in Kabul, keeping a NATO force there. Erdoğan is all for it, ‘provided conditions are met’. If the Taliban and the other neighboring states have any say in the matter – and they do – that project is D.O.A. It would be logistically impossible to maintain with the US gone from Afghanistan.
Then, there is the worsening situation in Syria, where there is growing opposition to occupation and increasing attacks against foreign troops. Erdoğan has his plate full and serious concerns to address. With elections in a couple of years he will be turning his eye to campaigning. We will see if the Mars transit across Turkey’s IC brings any protests with it. If not, the Bolton and Co. have not really started their work yet. A guess would be they are building funding there in Turkey and ramping up the rhetoric on RFE/RL and attempting to do so via social media. But Turkey has been pushing out the Western NGOs since March of 2017, making it harder for the other NATO powers to fund opposition groups.
With the transits and directions indicated it would come as no surprise at all if Turkey were to begin alternative payment methods, given the directions to the financial and foreign axes of Turkey’s chart (8th and 9th houses). And with directed Uranus having been on the Sultan’s IC this year, he has had it in his mind, for certain. Security interests have been front and center. Perhaps another batch of the Russian S-400 air defences are in the works.
These next two years will be critical for Turkey. Changes, and big ones, are ‘in the stars’ and for anyone who studies Turkey. What it is not looking good for, though, is the Turkish Democracy Project. Big John will not be getting his Thanksgiving Turkey by the look of things.
Featured pic from Facts of Turkey