Turkey has been in the news quite a bit lately, due to the S-400/F35 differences in opinion (putting it mildly) between Erdogan and Washington. As a result of Ankara’s having received the Russian S-400 antiaircraft system, Western news outlets are now reporting that Turkey has been cut from the F35 program, to which it was a major contributor, especially in the area of manufacturing. It was to receive a number of F35 fighter jets in return, but now that has been suspended indefinitely. Why has this happened? What does the astrology say about it? But more importantly, what does it suggest about Turkey’s future and that of the Middle East?
The current problems between Washington and Ankara go back several years, especially becoming strained over the Syrian conflict since 2011. Things came to a head after the attempted Turkish coup in July of 2016, which marked a turning point in relations between Turkey and the NATO member states, especially the US. And relations with EU states began to deteriorate at a more rapid pace. There are many reasons for such a state of affairs, which is too much to address here, but suffice it to say, since Erdogan became President of Turkey, relations with the West have reached a low point, not to place the blame on him. The problems have been long in development, but came to a head after Erdogan’s presidency. A few of the reasons are as follows:
- The US alliance with the YPG forces in northeastern Syria, whom Turkey sees as terrorists. The US has set up military bases in that region in an apparent attempt to establish a Kurdish state, which Ankara roundly condemns.
- The financial difficulties under which Turkey has increasingly suffered this century, which Ankara likes to blame on outside interference, but which are more or less caused internally via bad financial policy and corruption. What we see there is Erdogan seeking to shift the blame away from his own failing policies.
- The failure of the Syrian conflict to end swiftly in the ousting of Assad. Turkey had designs on the northern territories of Syria, with irredentist motives (map).
- A more pragmatic look at the failing policies of the West, the Saudis and Israel in the Middle East, with the rise in influence of China and Russia in the region, with power shifting toward the East. Turkey would gain considerably as an energy corridor from Russia and the ‘Stans to Europe. The Turkstream gas pipelines are evidence of this.
- Turkish designs on gas fields around Cyprus, with current rhetoric out of Ankara suggesting military intervention there to secure the fields. This has won no friends in the EU, of which Cyprus is a member.
Now there is the current stoush with Washington over Ankara’s purchase of the S-400 missile system. It will pay to have a look at Turkey’s chart, then, to hash out what is taking place. The national chart for Turkey is set for 29 Oct 1923 at 8:30 PM in Ankara. The chart is below (bigger):
There are two factors that immediately stand out. The first is the Uranian conjunction with the MC, indicating a changeable leadership, subject to sudden changes and indicating dramatic shifts in leadership, but at the same time being quite independent. There are two contrasting midpoints (MP) with Uranus: Ura=Moon/Jup, and Ura=Mars/Nep. This is a more powerful structure because Uranus is the apex of a quintile triangle in the chart, which enhances the idea of instability and obsessiveness. The former MP points to a confident, outgoing vision, with copious optimism and sudden advances in fortunes. The latter points to sudden weaknesses, crises, illnesses in the society and accidents. Turkey has certainly experienced both of those midpoint combinations, along with its share of coups.
The second factor that stands out is the Mars square to the Horizon axis, further forming a midpoint with Jupiter and Neptune. Mars square the horizon points to conflicts anyway. That MP is particularly telling of Turkey and its foreign policy and outlook: unreliability, plans that have no hope of fruition, irresponsible actions, over-dependence on others (NATO comes to mind) with the consequence of being let down, etc. The EU comes to mind, too. The decisive turning point for Turkey and its relations with the West was the 2016 coup attempt, speaking of being let down.
For background, on 24 Nov 2015 the Turkish air force shot down a Russian Sukhoi Su-24M jet fighter near the Turkish/Syrian border. This was two months after the Russians had intervened in Syria and had been bombing the Turkish/Saudi/US-backed rebel forces. Rather than retaliate militarily to the downing of their jet, Russia cut economic and tourism ties with Turkey, installed advanced missile systems at its bases in Syria and began an even more concerted bombing campaign on the oil convoys taking stolen oil from Syria into Turkey, an asymmetric response. The cut in economic ties included the Turkstream gas pipeline. Erdogan had to apologize to Russia and pay restitution to the families of the Russian soldiers who were killed. That was in June of 2016. A month later the coup was attempted. Coincidence?
The coup was launched out of Incirlik air base, in Turkey, a NATO base. Astrologically and as far as coups go, this was a non-event. There were no activations of the Midheaven or the ruler of the same. Neptune rules Turkey’s MC, contributing further to its lack of clear planning and hopes for the future instead of hard thought-out strategies. There were no transits or directions to either point in the chart at the time of the attempted coup. The transits show something different, below (bigger):
Both Saturn and Uranus made coincident transits to Turkey’s Mercury, Saturn and nodal axis. Mercury rules the 4th and 12th houses, affecting the homeland and opposition forces as well as hidden enemies of the state and nefarious operations. Saturn was squaring the nodal axis, indicating a change in relationships and ‘fateful encounters’ with others – otherwise souring relations. The nodal axis lies across the 3rd and 9th houses, ruling communications, commerce and foreign affairs, and Saturn was transiting through the 6th house of services in general, but specifically military services. Saturn was also making a semi-square to its own place.
In turn, Uranus was transiting the same points, but with different aspects. It was conjunct Mercury (an uprising of the opposition and/or instigation by foreign actors), opposite Saturn, showing the disorganized nature of the event and the surprises that ensued when it took place – against the instigators (Saturn transiting the 6th – suppression of the armed forces). It also showed the test of Turkey’s legal system (Saturn/7th) that came after and the strength of its democracy. In addition, the transiting south node was on Turkey’s Uranus, showing a break with the past. Turkey’s past is represented in NATO and in its desire to become a member of the EU.
As to the directions, for a successful coup recipe, one needs directions to the MC or its ruler, along with proper (stressful) transits. This attempt had neither. There were numerous directions, though, below (bigger):
One of the more telling directions was that of Neptune (sitting government in this case) to Turkey’s Jupiter. It was said that turkey’s military was split as to the direction the nation was taking. After Erdogan’s apology to Russia, it was too much for the Atlanticists/NATO-leaning members of the ranks, who decided to take matters into their own hands. They probably had encouragement from outside. The problem was, Erdogan had been forewarned, possibly months in advance, and on the day by Russia and Iran.
Hence, we see Erdogan’s present leanings toward Iran and Russia away from NATO. Germany had denied him asylum when the attempt took place, meaning NATO would not take him in. The Patriot missile batteries that Turkey normally used had been removed, so Erdogan was unprotected. Besides that, there was no technology transfer with the Patriot system and they had to be manned by other NATO personnel, namely German, Dutch and American. As a coup, the whole thing was quite amateurish and ill-thought, again reflecting the direction of Neptune to Jupiter, the latter ruling the nation’s armed forces. We won’t go over the other directions, except to say that the Venus directions show that Erdogan had help, and that change was definitely in the wind with the directed horizon axis square to Turkey’s Uranus, the latter ruling its foreign relations (9th house).
Why then, has Turkey decided to lean more and more toward the East, possibly sacrificing its pride of place in the NATO? Firstly, it is actually quite pragmatic. Washington’s Middle East policy is falling in a heap, and rapidly so. The key to success was supposed to have been Syria and the ousting of Assad. That having failed, there is also the failed war in Yemen, the strengthened Axis of Resistance (Hezbollah, Syria, Iran and Shia Iraq), the failed ‘Deal of the Century’, the failed Qatari blockade and Russian and Chinese influence growing in the Middle East. The EU has been no help to Erdogan, either. Then, the neo-liberal economics of the West, which Turkey adopted, has led to the same instability and wealth disparity in Turkey that it has in Western nations, whereas the East keeps growing stronger economically. Washington is seen as an unreliable partner, to put the matter simply.
The result is rising instability in the Middle East, coupled with Ankara’s desires in the Cypriot region in terms of energy, has resulted in the Turks purchasing the Russian S-400. It was a wise choice, looking at it from the outside. The system has no equals. The purchase includes technology transfer, which in turn will enable Turkey to eventually develop its own indigenous system, and it will now be free to purchase Russian 5th generation fighter jets at a fraction of the cost of the F35 – and probably be a partner in the manufacturing. In all, Washington is losing in this deal. Turkey manufactures some 900 parts for the F35. Now the US will have to go shopping somewhere else for those parts, since Turkey has chosen to snub the US program. (The Western press says that Turkey was ‘kicked out’ of the program – a bit of face-saving there). We see, then, that the coup attempt was a key turning point in Turkish relations with the West, given the directions and transits to Turkey’s nodal axis at the time. Where to from here, then?
Turkey is currently mired in northern Syria, pouring in good money after bad it can ill afford at the moment, with the way its economy is flagging. Now especially, with the loss of the contract for the F35 manufacturing, there is a further hole in the budget. The natural course is to turn to the East. But there are problems there, too. Ankara has dug a hole for itself. It had started taking in Uighur militants and training them in combat in Syria, to be sent back to destabilize China. They will now have to mend fences there.
Ankara had irredentist designs on northern Syria, which they will eventually have to drop, especially if they leave or are kicked out of or leave the NATO. The problem with the militants they back in Idlib is that those same proxies constantly attack Syrian and Russian positions in Syria, so they will be wiped out over time, and that may induce yet another migration crisis into Turkey and beyond. The attacks on Idlib have been stepped up recently. The YPG is a thorn in Turkey’s side, too, and they will eventually have to deal with the US in northeastern Syria.
Since the attempted coup, Turkey has aligned itself more closely with Iran and Qatar, further putting distance between itself, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Washington. Their choices appear to be rather clear. The folks in Ankara have to choose – the West or the East? The logical choice would appear to be the East. Yet, Turkey is more European than Asian in its society and it is a nation that bridges two continents. It is in a valuable strategic position. And then, Erdogan’s party has recently lost key seats in Turkish elections, Istanbul being one of them. Economic instability usually breeds political instability.
The recent eclipses and the Saturn/Pluto conjunction/activations early next year will square Turkey’s natal Mercury/Saturn conjunction. This will highlight once again the opposition, foreign actors, hidden enemies of the state, constitutional matters, and will occur in the 7th house – international disputes and agreements, public enemies, legal disputes within the state and so on. Its progressed Moon has also just crossed the Descendant and will be in the 7th house, and balsamic, in the first of next year. Along with many other nations, Turkey will be experiencing significant changes early next year.
As to what the future holds astrologically into the near future, there is no indication in a significant change in the government. Erdogan may go in a future election, but as to coups and the like there is nothing especially indicated. The important note there is that Turkey’s government looks to be intact at least until 2025. In a way, the purchase of the S-400 has given the Turks a new view of the world, both in what it means for future work and contracts and what it has revealed about its Western partners. That is indicated by a direction of Venus to Turkey’s Vertex, indicating a fortunate alliance and change of view.
These things will take time to develop and pan out, but in the interim, it certainly looks as though Turkey is turning eastwards, maybe leaving the NATO (which is increasingly shaky anyway) and looking to fulfill its destiny into the future as a bridge between the East and the West, rather than simply as a Western ally. As it does so and as the decades pass, it will increasingly express its Cancerian soul, abandoning the more Scorpionic traits of its present personality.
Featured pic from the Daily Express