They’ve killed Baghdadi – again. It has been reported all over the mainstream media. The story goes that on or about 11:30 pm Syria time, 26 Oct 2019, there was a raid by American special forces on a compound where one Abū Bakr al-Baghdadi was hiding out with his wife, his supposed children and other children as well, during which Baghdadi blew himself up with a suicide vest rather than being captured, along with three children. It was like a scene from a Hollywood film. Problem is, there are probably good reasons to doubt the story is true, at least in certain details.
This raid comes on the heels of the Turkish Peace Spring operation, at a time when Turkish/US relations are at an all-time low. It also takes place at the beginning of campaign season in the US, with Trump facing impeachment investigations, with a shaky US economy (despite what we hear), with the Turkish advance into Syria having halted due to Russian diplomacy and so forth. In short, the timing of the raid appears to be more than a little ‘convenient’, which we will outline in part.
We will get to the chart of the event in a bit. There are several things that do not add up about the story, as well as conflicting stories, confusing the narrative as told by the White House. There is a BBC article that gives probably the most detailed description of events, linked below. But their story does not gibe with observations on the ground. There are quotes from the article and then the questionable bits, unfolded as we go along:
- “The raid was launched from Iraq”: If so, the flight to Idlib would have taken almost two hours by helicopter, depending. The flight from the Iraqi border in the shortest distance to the Turkish border at Idlib is just at 250 miles. The helicopters flew out of Al-Asad airbase in Iraq, it was reported (app. 400 miles). The top speed of a CH-47 helicopter is 170 knots (196 mph). The math is simple. The BBC reported the transit time was about an hour and ten minutes. More likely is that the raid originated in Turkey, or perhaps from al-Tanf.
- “The helicopters arrived at destination at about 1:00 am local time”: Reports on the ground say that the raid took place at 9:30 UT (11:30 pm local time). They would have left at just before 6:00 pm DC time (EDT) for a 1hr 10m transit time. Trump stated he arrived at the situation room around 4:30 pm. Then there is this:
“At around 5 pm, he [Trump] gathered in the White House Situation Room with Vice President Mike Pence, Defense Secretary Mark Esper, national security adviser Robert O’Brien, and other intelligence officials. They watched the raid unfold live “as if you were watching a movie,” said Trump. Moments after they gathered, U.S. military personnel and military dogs lifted-off in eight helicopters from an unidentified military base in the Middle East, according to Trump. The personnel came from the Delta Force, one of the U.S. special units mainly focused on counter-terrorism and often deployed to capture high-value targets. A U.S. official told Reuters the operation was staged from an airbase in western Iraq. The on-the-ground operation in the Idlib region of Syria was supported by military aircraft and ships, said Trump.”
Problem is, The Syrian Observatory of Human Rights (SOHR), which has usually been pretty reliable at reporting the timing of events and casualties, reported that the raid took place at 9:30 UT. That would mean that the helicopters would have had to leave well before 4:30 pm EDT (DC time). There is a four hour time difference between EDT and UT. That means that Trump would have been on the golf course when the mission started. Trump would have been playing golf at the time of the mission in progress – not starting “moments after he entered the situation room”. Trump’s recounting of events is clearly obfuscation or confusion of the facts. Or is it? If the BBC article is true, he didn’t observe the entire mission. How can we say that with certainty?
The SOHR observes events from on the ground in Syria, in the opposition and government regions alike, not in newsrooms thousands of miles away. The BBC article, linked in the first bullet point above, is clearly off the mark. Further, the Russian Ministry of Defense says there is no evidence of air activity over Syria at the time of the raid. Russian radar tracks everything in Syria. If there had been helicopters over Syria, they would have known.
It was stated that the helicopters flew over territory controlled by Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Russia, (norther Syria in the Pace Spring zone) which is another obfuscation. The Russians have S-300 and S-400 installations in Syria, on the coast of the Mediterranean and inland. The S-400, of which there are two in Syria, even if located on the coast, can ‘see’ into Iraq almost to Mosul, to Ankara and to the southern tip of Israel.
There is no unmonitored airspace in the region. The Russians and Syrians would have had good data on what was taking place in the air. And Chinook helicopters do not have stealth capabilities, especially if having taken off from Iraq, not that it would matter (both the S-400 and S-300 can track stealth aircraft). The only way to approach and avoid detection the whole time is to fly behind the mountains on the far western side of the village where the raid took place, along the Mediterranean coast.
So, here is another possibility: Trump’s recounting of the timeline is true. If so, then the mission would have started shortly after 11:00 pm local time, meaning the transit time would have been at most half an hour, or about 95 miles in a Chinook copter at top speed. That would place the takeoff point for the mission most likely at Incirlik air base, in Turkey. So, either the Russians are lying about not knowing (possible), there is deliberate misinformation about the length of the journey given to news sources (likely), or Trump spilled the beans (also likely). Trump has been known to disclose sensitive information that is normally kept under wraps.
Then, there is the famous ‘underwear DNA’ instant analysis.
- “Lab technicians conducted an onsite DNA test to make sure and within 15 minutes of his death, positively identified the target.”
Apparently, such machines for near instant analyses of DNA do exist, but neither of the ones mentioned does so in less than one hour, at least not those we know of:
“In 2015, SOCOM officials revealed that commandos had begun using two new types of a small and portable DNA lab: the RapidHIT 200 from California-based IntegenX and the DNAscan from NetBIO in Massachusetts.”
A quick search on the units mentioned shows the fastest one takes about an hour, and the other comes in at 90 minutes, not the 15 minutes recounted by the AP. And the reference DNA supposedly came from Baghdadi’s soiled underwear, obtained through his wife/defector/daughter/undercover source (?!). Or, it was collected when he was a prisoner during the Iraq war. And we are certain said ‘underwear’ was from Baghdadi? OK…
So, we see there are inconsistencies in the stories. The above may seem to be splitting hairs, but there is a point to it. Firstly, it reveals the inconsistency in reporting, beyond human error. Secondly, it goes to illustrate facts on the ground in the region. And thirdly, it supports what is shown in the chart.
Aside from the preceding, then, there is no body, Baghdadi’s remains were given ‘a burial at sea’ (dumped in the sea in contravention of Islamic tradition. Plus, why would they care if he was such a criminal?), no video, although we are told by Trump that some unclassified video may be coming, and then there is the picture of the brave canine who ‘pursued the whimpering and terrified Baghdadi’ (maybe not) into the dead-end tunnel. G’boy! (Not to insult the dog or the service members. We have three dogs at home. Everyone loves dogs, almost. The problem with focusing on the dog is with the spin on the story and using the dog’s image for stirring patriotic fervor and media ratings.)
We’re told the dog’s name is ‘Conan’ – if that’s her real name, and if it is a ‘she’. Now the Twitter-sphere is alight with outrage over outing ‘Conan’, as it exposes sensitive information about special forces. Rightly so. Beautiful dog, by the way, but if you want to keep the identity secret, don’t tweet out pictures of her.
With all this in mind – and there is much more we could parse – what does the chart say, which brings us to probably the most important consideration for this piece – the spin factor? The chart is set for 11:30 pm local time (EET, as observed by the SOHR) in Idlib province (close enough for our purposes, as we do not have an exact time). The chart is below (bigger):
The main factor that stands out and which is central to the chart is the Moon/Mars conjunction in the 3rd house, quincunx Neptune in the 8th house. This was a covert operation, with covert operations being ruled by the 12th house. The 12th in this chart is ruled by Cancer, and hence by the Moon. The Mars conjunction marks the military aspect of the operation. The 3rd house rules the media. This was a made-for-TV event, as evidenced by the Neptune quincunx and the 3rd house placement. The Neptune aspects point to the contrasting stories/confusion/obfuscation/outright/lies – take your pick. The placement in the 8th house points to ‘a mysterious death’, or the illusion of the same.
The illusory nature of events is also notable by the Sun/Neptune sesquisquare, with the Sun conjunct the IC in the 3rd house (public consumption) also opposite Uranus, the latter in the 9th and conjunct the MC. This event was an effort to change the narrative, it would seem, with Uranus adding to the surprise of the event and accentuating the contradictory telling of events between various sources. The Mars/Neptune quincunx shows the effort to move hearts and minds and to stir belief systems. The Sun/Uranus opposition can also indicate an excitable nature, muddle-headedness, contradictory natures and even trouble-makers.
Then, the Leo rising gives the dramatic recounting of events, echoed throughout American media. Finally, Saturn was sextile Neptune, suggesting ‘controlled illusions’ or perhaps ‘dreams made reality’. What does this event leave us with, then? Very little, really.
Killing Baghdadi, or whoever it was, will not change events on the ground in any appreciable manner. Daesh has already been defeated. It is not dead, but it has been pushed underground. Daesh has already selected another leader and is probably already changing its plans, given Trump has blurted out that sensitive documents were taken from the site. It is not necessarily a top-down organization and is comprised of many factions. There was also something more to the story here and it goes back to the 2nd paragraph of this article: Trump needed a ‘win’.
The troop withdrawal prior to the commencement of Peace Spring enraged many of Trump’s erstwhile allies in Washington and abroad. It was an off the cuff move, made in a hurry and without consultation or planning. We turned tail and ran, basically, while the Kurdish civilians pelted the troops with stones and potatoes. Yet, Trump has been trying to get the troops out since last year. But, the pushback in trying to do so forces him to backtrack. That is what the troops heading back into Syria from Iraq to ‘protect the oil’ is all about.
Trump had to throw the military-industrial complex (hence the Congressional feed trough) and Israel a bone, or the impeachment proceedings against him would have accelerated quickly. It is the lobbies in Washington that direct policy, not presidents. Plus, all his talk about the world being a much safer place now that Baghdadi is gone is rich, considering the US funded and promoted Daesh. But, the impeachment brouhaha has calmed down now to a degree as a result of the repositioning of troops at the oil fields. However, that ‘secure the oil’ gambit will be impossible to keep afloat in the long run.
In closing, this event, even if it was Baghdadi who was killed, is about Washington seeking to create its own reality and shifting the finish line yet again. And if it was Baghdadi, good on the special forces and good riddance to a bad dude. When it comes to it, though, we keep troops in Syria and elsewhere because we need the illusion of a dangerous enemy in a region in order to justify occupying territories, justify defense spending (which means American jobs) and exploit the resources.
This Baghdadi cat has reportedly been killed at least three times, if not more. We hear tell that Obama got him first, (the Seal team! remember) and then the Russians. That cat may have a few more lives to go. But his ‘death’ will be rolled out with great fanfare at Trump’s election rallies in the next months, along with the story that it was the US under Trump’s watch who defeated Daesh. Tell that to the Syrians, Iranians, Hezbollah and the Russians, who actually did defeat Daesh. Oh, but Daesh isn’t gone and we must be tough and vigilant, and keep the troops in Syria to be sure they don’t come back! That will be the story line. And we can’t let that oil get into the wrong hands, can we? – meaning the Syrians.
Trump said watching the mission, as the posed picture shows, was like watching a movie. Wouldn’t you know, this story has parallels with the Bin Laden killing, if that really happened as well, and that again raises many questions. Maybe Trump did see the whole thing. If so, it would have gone probably something like this, in true Hollywood style:
Ending on a serious note, though, hats off to the Special Forces. They did do a great job, if what we are told is true. The problem is not with them, but with the politicization of the event.
Featured pic from KTSA News.
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