I have read somewhere that when dealing with Russia, one can either speak with Lavrov or one will have to speak with Shoigu. One goes first to Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister. If talks don’t work, then one has to speak with Shoigu. Sergei Shoigu is Russian Defense Minister. Recently Shoigu and Putin spent the weekend taking in the air of the forest, most likely in Tuva, Shoigu’s home base, and Shoigu’s workshop. Apparently the man enjoys woodworking and has a nice shop, from the photos. But that is not the subject of this post. Shoigu also has charge of another ‘workshop’, and it would appear that ‘talks’ between various parties and Shoigu will soon be taking place.
From the Aries letter this year the world geopolitical scene is changing very rapidly. And from appearances, there are two areas in particular where Shoigu will be plying his professional craft, if various commentators in the know have it correct. Those two areas are the Ukraine and Syria. Several recent events point to why. In the Ukraine we have the following developments:
- Reports of heavy military equipment being shipped to the east of the nation by train
- Zelensky’s polling is terrible now and the nation is in the midst of a constitutional crisis.
- Reports of numerous ceasefire violations in the Donbass region by Ukrainian forces
- The COVID crisis is extreme in Ukraine, with record numbers of people in hospital
- A NATO delegation was just in Ukraine, headed by an American general, looking at cooperation between the Ukrainian army and NATO forces.
- Russians are making discreet preparations along the border with the Donbass region
- Moscow is starting to send warnings to Kiev about escalating tensions with the Donbass
In Syria we have the following recent events:
- Russia has started hitting illegal oil and gas theft operations in Syria (here, here and here)
- Turkey’s economy is in increasingly poor shape, and the Russian airstrikes have cut oil supplies that were flowing into Turkey
- Erdogan is begging for Western help to end the Syrian war, all the while threatening to send waves of refugees into Europe
- A marked increase in Russian airstrikes in the Badia desert region
- Turkey is once again fighting the Kurds in NE Syria
- A delegation from Hezbollah was recently in Moscow for talks with Russia
- The US is looking (probably) at setting up a de facto US military base just tens of kilometers from Damascus on the Lebanese border
- Turkey has opened a new military outpost on the border crossing with Idlib
- Rocket attacks against American bases are starting to occur in Syria now, and not just Iraq
The questions then arise, looking at all the preceding points, will there actually be military conflict in these two nations, who would be the ultimate target, cui bono, and what would be the probable outcome? We’ll start with Syria.
We start with the national chart for Syria: 16 Sep 1941, midnight, Damascus. That chart is from Marc Penfield, and I have found it to be the best working chart for Syria. The chart is set for when France ended its mandate and the British followed suit, thus recognizing Syrian independence. The chart is below (bigger):
We won’t go into an analysis of the chart here except to note a few pertinent points relating to their current situation. Firstly, we note the Aries Midheaven and in particular the midpoint, MC=Sat/Plu: “Restlessness, indefatigability, prudence, vision, aspirations for innovations and reforms, mobility, the instant grasp and exploitation of every situation.” The question on most people’s minds when looking at Syria is if the Syrian government will prevail in the conflict that started in 2011 and will Assad remain as leader. The answer is mostly likely yes. We’ll see why as we go along here, but the midpoint just described is a big factor in that assumption.
The next factor is the Saturn/Uranus conjunction in the 11th house (alliances): “A self-willed nature, tenaciousness and toughness, obstinacy, strong emotional tensions or stresses.” This is trine to the Sun and Neptune, the latter two also conjunct, with the Sun on the North Node and square to Jupiter. Neptune rules the 9th house – foreign influences, pro and con, with Neptune on the IC (the populace, infrastructure and opposition parties). That Neptune also represents Syria’s oil resources as well as the blurred boundaries between legitimate and foreign proxy opposition groups.
The preceding brings us to the present war in Syria, which has been called a civil war, but which is in reality a proxy war involving other regional and Western powers, using proxy forces intermixed with local opposition forces, like the Kurds. The chart for the start of the conflict is below (bigger):
The chart shows directed Mars square the MC, with transiting Uranus at the MC and transiting Saturn square the Ascendant and activating the directed Pluto, also square the Ascendant. Such a combination of factors is a classic setup for a war at least, and the overthrow of a government. Transiting Neptune squares the Vertex from the 8th house (death of the state and transformation) with directed Pluto and transiting Saturn both semisquare the Vertex. Anyone looking at this chart at the time would be inclined to say Syria was doomed or in for very significant if not massive changes. The Pluto square to the Horizon axis also shows the subversion involved. But the wild card there are the midpoints described above. No one had counted on the resilience of the Syrians and their capacity to give as well as they took, and also the alliances they formed in the process of the battles.
Looking at the directions today (below, bigger), we see from the directed midpoints that violence is coming (Ura/MC=Mars), a revolution midpoint that usually shows events a few years before it is exact, which is what is showing. That is reinforced by the transit of Neptune opposite Syria’s Sun (shown in the next chart), the latter ruling the 2nd house (finances), with the Sun also ruling leaders in general. With the Caesar Act in place, Syria’s finances are badly strained, as in at starvation levels, but that is also set to change.
We see the prime ‘revolution midpoint’, Ura/Plu, conjunct the Syrian Sun, exact in about seven months. It can either mean complete independence or a catastrophe. The latter is not showing. There is a deal in the works for Syria and Yemen, and it is quite possible Syria will begin to take part in the growing bypassing of US sanctions that Russia, Iran and China are just about to finalize. At that point we can probably look at China coming into Syria to rebuild its infrastructure. But there is another side to that, too, relating to the Arab States.
Here’s the proposed deal: To end the wars in Syria and Yemen, Iran and Hezbollah withdraw from Syria, the Saudis leave Yemen and Syria re-enters the Arab League. The Saudis and UAE pay reparations to Syria and allow it to rebuild. Russia stays in Syria, Assad stays in power, Hezbollah keeps its weapons and neither Israel nor the US have any say in the deal. It is not difficult to imagine there will be all sorts of attempts by Israel and Western powers to prevent such a deal from taking place. It is a Russian initiative. This is possibly shown by the directed Sun/Ven and Sun/Node midpoints to the Syrian MC. Syria would trade with the Chinese, Russians and Iranians in local currencies, bypassing the SWIFT system and thus nullifying the Caesar Act.
If the preceding sounds too good to be true, at least to the Syrians, we’ll have to wait and see. 2021 will still be a tough year, given the midpoints directed to the Ascendant. But from what we see here, there are better possibilities manifesting for Syria. Of course, the SAA will still have to deal with the Turks, the Kurds and the US, as in removing them from their territory. But with rocket attacks on Americans now taking place in Syria as well as Iraq, and with the Turks now fighting the Kurds, with Russia bombing oil convoys and infighting between the ‘moderate rebels’, we see movement toward a sort of end game.
Looking at the transits and the standard directions (w/o midpoints), we have the following below (bigger):
Hidden enemies of the state are being mobilized, or at least attempted, shown by directed Mars in the 12th house, square to natal Mercury, which rules that house (hidden enemies of the state). However, neither the 10th house (sitting government) nor its ruler (Mars in this case) are affected adversely now, showing the government will remain intact. Instead, the directed MC is conjunct the natal Jupiter, exact in about 6 weeks, showing a fortunate turn of events.
In summary, then, we see that there is nothing terrible about to befall Syria, no large military conflict, though there may be another faked chemical attack. What will probably eventuate instead are several pushes by the SAA to clear remaining pockets of Daesh in the desert, increasing attacks on opposition groups in Idlib, increasing attacks on American forces, as in nuisance attacks seeking to send the massage they are not wanted in Syria and which would lower American morale, increasing diplomatic efforts between all parties involved, mostly at Russian initiative, and so on.
If there is to be a military push which would involve Russia, it is most likely to come in Ukraine, which will be covered next. In the meantime, since 2015 Sergei Shoigu has been sharpening the tools in his other ‘workshop’ – the Russian military and their emerging technologies and weapons systems. The Syrians have been getting good experience using some of those weapons systems, too, and are quite adept now at shooting down missiles from Israeli nuisance air raids.
Russia has played a cool hand in Syria, being careful not to rouse the American Leviathan, as it has recently been called, all the while building on experience, strengthening its own military and showing its diplomatic skills, which have gained strong trust in the region. With these points in mind we move on to consider the other room in Shoigu’s workshop, where it look like he will be ‘talking’ to Ukrainians. Continue to Part II…
Featured pic from Sputnik News Arabic