Speculation among military and intelligence people is at a peak these days as to what is about to befall Ukraine. Will the war be long and drawn out, as the United States would like to see, or will there be a very large Russian winter offensive that will finally bring a close to the affair? Military analysts tend to err on the latter, for many reasons. We will look at all that here, along with Ukraine’s astrology.
What follows is largely addressed to Europeans, but North Americans and readers in other Western allied nations may want to take note. Several things are about to happen due to military actions in the region, starting with Ukraine’s power outages. Thereafter events will cascade into Western Europe and finally to North America. Oceania (Australia and New Zealand) will be somewhat more immune from the fallout – figuratively speaking.
Going into winter we have reached an inflexion point in this wider economic world war and the military aspect of it in Ukraine. Events on the ground in Ukraine are about to unfold very rapidly, to the detriment of Kiev and their foreign backers. There are several conjectures about what will take place, but we will stick with what is known.
The electrical system in Ukraine teeters on the edge of total collapse, having been rendered so by successive large missile strikes by the Russians on Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure. Once that happens and the ground in Ukraine freezes the military solution to the conflict will happen or at least become very clear to the West in a matter of weeks, probably, according to military analysts. Hence we hear the Western powers calling for negotiations.
Articles are beginning to appear in the Western press describing difficulties in Ukraine and the terrible state of affairs among Ukrainian troops. This has changed from reporting thus far that Ukraine is winning. We no longer hear that to any great extent. The media is beginning to ease us into the fact that Washington is about to abandon Zelenskyy and Ukraine and ‘declare victory’, like they did in Afghanistan.
Russians are no longer interested in talking, especially since Merkel’s statements about the Minsk agreements, unless the West seriously addresses Russia’s security concerns. On the other side the Western powers have no interest in addressing those concerns, still convinced that somehow they can prevail over Russia. It is a terrible thing to witness unfolding. Events as they are occurring also expose the hypocrisy of the Western powers.
Satellite pictures of Ukraine at night now show a blackened landscape. In the photo above, Ukraine is the dark area just above the Black Sea. We are witnessing the start of Ukraine’s dark winter. Moldova is also often without power, because it receives power from Ukraine. Russian bombing of the electrical and energy infrastructure of Ukraine is exactly what NATO does when it ‘intervenes’ in another nation. We saw it in the Balkans when NATO initiated a massive bombing campaign on Serbia’s infrastructure and ‘brought the Serbs to heel’. When the Russians do the same it is a called a war crime, to hear our press tell the story. NATO did the same in Iraq and Libya. That Serbian campaign is what turned the Russians against the West (article from a Western point of view) and began Russia’s turn away from the West and rise to their present status.
Ukraine’s cities in the east of the country are becoming uninhabitable. Modern cities depend upon electricity to function. Kharkov and Odessa are particularly being targeted in this manner. With the destruction of Ukraine’s power grid there is no running water or heat. Except for canned and dried goods, fresh food will become unavailable due to lack of transport and refrigeration. Unless there are emergency generators food processing plants will cease to function. Sanitation will suffer. Internet and phone services will eventually cease. The effect on the populace will be demoralizing (video) over time.
Western Europe and states surrounding Ukraine can expect a large influx of Ukrainians leaving the country. One of our Ukrainian friends here confirms these facts. Ukraine will become depopulated except for the hardiest souls and will likely remain so to some degree. It is already becoming desexualized, as the women and children are being sent abroad to safety and the men are dying in large numbers in senseless counteroffensives.
The more fortunate souls who leave Ukraine will eventually become expats living abroad. Another of our Ukrainian friends has confirmed this, as her adult son and his family have found a home in Canada, with no thought of return to Ukraine. This friend is quite happy about the turn of events, too, because the son and family are safe and will prosper. These things happen in war. War tends to force mass migrations.
One possibility that is emerging since Surovikin took over is the development of a Ukrainian demilitarized zone, with the easternmost border being along the Dnieper River and 100 km to the west for the other border. That zone would be uninhabited and would represent a huge loss of fertile farmland. An armistice would be the result, however, like we have between the Koreas at the moment. It is not a great result, putting it mildly, and in essence would result in a frozen conflict. But it would end the fighting for a time and give both sides a way out without admitting defeat. Is that really desirable, though, or does it just delay the inevitable?
Eventually that DMZ would have to result in negotiations to free the land or another war to seize it. Even the thought of a DMZ now would seem to be a fantasy, but there are increasing calls to end the conflict. Ukrainian losses are becoming too terrible and the NATO stockpiles and the looming defeat of Ukraine have the Western powers calling for negotiations to end the conflict. One does not call for negotiations if one is winning. And we have to ask: Is this winning?
War is won by means of good logistics. Without electricity, military logistics and communications over any distance in Ukraine become very difficult. There is also a lack of fuel. The destabilization across Ukraine will become a real problem, and the very thing the Russians want to avoid is a collapsed state on its borders. Time will be of the essence, therefore. It is perhaps the main reason why we are more likely to see a large Russian offensive meant to end the war instead of some sort of negotiated end to the conflict. At this point we take a look at Ukraine’s astrology going forward. The chart with transits and directions is below (bigger):
There are three directions in the chart of note – directed MC to natal Ceres, directed Ascendant to natal Pluto and the directed midpoint combination Ura=Sun/Plu to natal Mars. The midpoint has the following interpretation:
“Carrying out fanatic reforms without regard for oneself. – Sudden adjustment to new circumstances (arrest).”
Noting the direction of the MC to Ceres, we see there is a turning point in the works. Is it possible Zelenskyy would be arrested, since the MC reflects the sitting government in any national chart? Further, perhaps the indication would be for the military (Mars) to step in and oust the government – a military coup, in other words. Such a possibility has been suggested by many analysts throughout this current phase of the conflict. Such a move would certainly save a lot of bloodshed. The West tends to favour Zaluzhny, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He is regular army in distinction to the nationalists and Nazis who have been embedded in the UAF. Of course, this is all speculation.
Then there is the direction of the Ascendant to natal Pluto, the latter ruling the Scorpio MC. That direction is a ‘life milestone’ indicator and indicates a very significant shakeup of one’s life – often a drastic and radical change. Given the other directions and the transit of Saturn having finally passed over Ukraine’s Moon (reality biting) and square their MC, we see something very significant is about to take place in the Ukraine conflict, as in over the next weeks or few months.
If the military analysts are correct about the major Russian offensive, our news feeds in the West will be flooded with horror stories from Ukraine over the coming weeks. The Russians will strike hard and fast, to depose the regime in Kiev and for the new government to restore order as quickly as possible. That government will be pledged to be neutral, as in no NATO forces within its borders – not necessarily Russia-friendly, but agreed upon within a pan-European security arrangement, with Russia’s concerns having been addressed.
Will there be democracy for Ukraine? That remains to be seen. It is not a democracy now. No matter what, if Ukraine becomes neutral and rids itself of its extremist elements, there is hope for the nation, and for Europe. Russians don’t care if Ukraine joins the EU, so long as the former remains neutral. The military and intelligence people cited in the monthly letters have experienced and studied war. Across the board, they see Ukrainian defeat. The technocrats and the generals who have not seen a real war against a peer continue to talk at us from their echo chambers and comfortable homes and offices in their G7 states.
Several events have happened in the past couple of weeks that indicate a large Russian offensive is coming very soon, if not imminently.
- Merkel’s admission the Minsk agreements were only a mechanism to allow time for Ukraine to fully arm themselves. The Western narrative is breaking down. Stoltenberg is not harping a ‘Ukrainian victory’ any longer. Now he says ‘whatever happens’. According to the elite commentariat in the West, who supposedly know Putin better than he knows himself, Putin is set for a long war in Ukraine. Someone had better tell Putin and his General Staff.
- Western powers are calling for negotiations instead of saying the conflict must be settled on the battlefield. Zaluzhny is calling for massive armor and troops, meaning he has none. In that regard:
“The inflection has begun. It has been messaged by the Financial Times (FT) and The Economist – the two media that so faithfully transmit any ‘replacement narrative’ to the globalist sherpas (those who carry the baggage up the mountain, on behalf of the mounted nabobs).”
Continuing:
- Russians have massed troops at three major points: Belarus to the north, the Belgorad region in Russia and the Kherson region in the south, amounting to a total of over 500,000 Russian troops and all of their hardware, which in itself is massive.
- Putin just spent the better part of a day meeting with the General Staff, which is not usual. Something is in the works. The Russians know there is no one on the Western side it is even worth talking to. The only solution for them now is the unconditional surrender of Ukraine, meaning also a NATO defeat.
- Patrushev (Putin’s spokesman) announced there will be no ceasefire or lull in military activities by the Russians over the holidays.
- Both Putin and Lavrov have arrived in Belarus for talks with Lukashenko, along with Shoigu and Belarussian counterparts, visits unannounced and unplanned. Medvedev paid a visit to Xi Jinping to fill him in on the next phase of the SMO. It is all rather telling.
The Economist and The Financial Times are both British publications, the latter owned by the Japanese but based in London. The fact the former has published the article cited in the preceding quote signals the British are about to throw in the towel when it comes to Ukraine:
“Zaluzhny and Syrsky are signalling the desperate and deteriorating state of the Ukrainian military capability to fight Russia and their grudging concession that Russia is winning and Ukraine has no viable path to victory. So why would British Intelligence give The Economist the green-light to tell the truth? I think it has something to do with the tsunami of strikes flooding the English labor force, double digit inflation and scarce energy. This trifecta makes it politically impossible for the UK to continue funneling billions into the black hole of Ukraine. I think this is the first sign of wavering resolve on the part of the Brits. Will NATO follow suit?”
Indeed. And just for clarity, if you want to know how the British establishment is trending, read the two aforementioned British neoliberal mouthpieces. Who will be next to say enough is enough regarding Ukraine? The Germans are getting restless, too. And now Zelenskyy has flown to Washington to address Congress and meet with Biden. Is this a desperate bid for more weapons? It would appear so, or is it a last attempt to shore up support for Ukraine? Or could it even signal Zelenskyy being given his marching orders? He has a mansion in Florida. Perhaps he ‘decides’ to stay. The latter is dubious, but stranger things have happened. Again, it is all speculation at this point.
Something is definitely up, though. Reading between the lines, it is clear to the Russians there can be no ceasefire, except under exceptional conditions, as it would only allow for rearming of the remaining Ukrainian army, especially given Merkel’s admission. But there is a fine line to tread by the Russian forces. If they move too quickly NATO will not be disarmed enough and it will remain intact, perhaps even emboldened. In that lull NATO could arm Ukraine with long-range weapons, capable of striking deep within European Russia. The conditions must be in place for an unconditional surrender by Kiev. It must be the regime in Kiev who decides – meaning NATO. The Russians will not be coming to the negotiating table.
What can we realistically expect in Ukraine, then? From Bhadrakumar:
“Therefore, in the prevailing circumstances, Russia’s option narrows down to inflicting a crushing defeat on Ukraine in the coming months and installing a government in Kiev that is not under Washington’s control. But that requires a fundamental shift in the Russian military strategy, which would factor in the real possibility of a confrontation with the US and NATO at some point.”
There are other possibilities, too. Either the Ukrainian army will become so attrited it can no longer front any resistance, causing a mass surrender of forces, or perhaps there will be a coup in Kiev that removes the nationalists, or the Russians sweep in and end the conflict once and for all.
The key to watch will be the strikes on the infrastructure and the movement of troops and materiel on the Ukrainian side. Military analysis shows the flow of weapons from Poland must be cut off. That means cutting the rail lines and bridges, cutting off the electricity and as a last resort, invading from the north to the west of Kiev, separating Galician Ukraine from Kiev. The latter would be tasked to the troops amassed in Belarus.
Given the indications in the Capricorn ingress figure for this year the next 90 days will see a dramatic change in the situation in Ukraine, meaning it will become clear to the Western powers Ukraine is lost. Then attention will be drawn to the leadership in Europe (the EU) and Washington/Brussels relations. Ukraine will become the albatross hanging from Europe’s neck, while Washington will walk away. And NATO’s reputation will be in tatters.
Europeans and the hardliners in Washington and London will have to eat humble pie when it comes to Russia, NATO and Ukraine. Similar feasts will be had regarding Iran and China. Those will be bitter repasts. But the EU member states may not want Ukraine in the EU when all is said and done. At the end of the conflict NATO will be seen in the wider world as inconsequential and will be ignored.
NATO has also been largely demilitarized, at least for the immediate future. Around 2/3 of its member states are severely depleted of their weapons stocks, having sent them to Ukraine. NATO could not defend itself as it stands. It is also possible it fractures and breaks up. Over the next year and a bit NATO faces severe tests. There are several reasons to suggest the latter, which is too much to cover here.
In short, we may see the capitulation of Ukraine or a coup in Kiev in the coming weeks if not months. We don’t hear about Kherson any longer, do we, which was supposed to be a great Ukrainian victory? It has become a ghost town. The spin in Western media in their attempts to cast all this as anything other than a defeat of the West will be something to behold.
For more background on the military aspects of the conflict there is an excellent three-part video, which is an exchange (starting here, or all three parts) between Col. Douglas Macgregor (ret.) and Dr. Michael Vlahos, both of them military historians. It is time the West faces reality about Ukraine.
Featured pic from The Economist