The ICJ ruling: What’s next for Israel?

On the 26^th of January the ICJ gave its first ruling on the Genocide Convention case brought by South Africa against Israel. The case is still a ways from being fully decided, but the preliminary ruling gave probable cause there was in fact genocide in Gaza and the Israelis were told to cease and desist as well as to allow humanitarian aid through to the Gazans. It was a blow to Israel, and to the West. For more, read on…

For a full analysis of the ruling there is a video that goes into it in detail. We won’t cover the details here because it is pretty well known what the Israelis and the US/UK will do – ignore the ruling. The case was actually a brilliant demonstration of the law and of the new South Africa. But it represents more than that.

Thereafter, every violation of the provisional ruling will be a violation against the ruling and will be logged, without a statute of limitation. Anyone aiding and abetting the ruling could be brought up on charges internationally. The repercussions of this ruling will likely resound for years.

Although the persons most invested in seeing a full ruling of genocide and calls for a general ceasefire were disappointed in the ruling, the wheels of the legal system turn very slowly, if not inexorably. In all, it was a great result, and as to why, we will explore that in a bit here.

The response from the West on the ruling was immediate, and monstrous, in that they cut aid to the UNRWA, guaranteeing that perhaps millions of Palestinians in Gaza and in 60 refugee camps scattered across the Middle East would starve. It is collective punishment, based upon testimony from Palestinian prisoners (extracted under ‘duress’, no doubt) as recounted by the Israelis that a few of the UNRWA workers were actually Hamas operatives during Al-Aqsa Flood on October 7. If so, so what? The UN fired the 12 people so accused.

There are some 30,000 UNRWA workers, many of them Palestinians. The alleged operatives singled out represent around 0.04% of the group. And the Western powers say they cannot verify the veracity of the Israeli claims – so they cut the funding just in case it was true?

In response to the funding cut the Resistance groups in Iraq launched a missile barrage into the Al-Tanf base on the borders of Syria, Jordan and Iraq, killing three American servicemen and wounding upwards of 50 others. Now there are calls by the chickenhawks in Congress to bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran. Ahhh McCain, you’ve done it again.

The provisional ICJ ruling showed us something else, though – Israeli and Western impunity are at an end. But where to from here? And what of the UN, and the emerging world order? What will become of Israel and Palestine? We need a little more background. In that regard there is a quote once again making the rounds:

“Il vecchio mondo sta morendo. Quello nuovo tarda a comparire. E in questo chiaroscuro nascono i mostri.” Antonio Gramsci (rendered from the real quote)

This quote, actually mistranslated into English makes the rounds every so often in an attempt to describe what is taking place in our changing world. The common English translation – “The old world is dying. That new world is slow to appear. This is the time of monsters.” – is a butchery of even the misquoted Gramsci, which was originally in his prison notebooks. But the quote applies to what is happening in the Middle East/West Asia, with the monstrous atrocities taking place in the Levant.

There is a nuance from the Italian rendering of Gramsci’s original quote which is missing in the English rendering, which has a large bearing on answering the questions just posed. The original quote was taken from a larger paragraph, as follows, translated:

“The aspect of the modern crisis that is lamented as a “wave of materialism” is connected with what is called a “crisis of authority”. If the ruling class has lost consensus, that is, it is no longer “ruling”, but only “dominant”, holder of pure coercive force, this precisely means that the great masses have detached themselves from traditional ideologies, they no longer believe in what they before they believed etc. The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old dies and the new cannot be born: in this interregnum the most varied morbid phenomena occur. This paragraph must be linked to some observations made on the so-called “youth issue” I determined by the “crisis of authority” of the older managerial generations and by the mechanical impediment placed on those who could lead from carrying out their mission.”

Emphases added. The bolded text is the original quote translated to English. So, what does all this have to do with the crisis in West Asia? Well, history rhymes as the cycles turn. Let the paragraph and quote sink in, because we see the same dynamic today as what Gramsci was describing a century ago while he was imprisoned by the fascist regime in Italy. He later died from maltreatment while he was imprisoned, at the age of 47.

What we are looking at in West Asia and wider afield are as follows:

• A crisis of authority in the West. The ruling classes have lost consensus, and the ruling from the ICJ confirms the ruling classes of the West no longer have any integrity.
• More and more, the Western governments rely on coercive force over their publics, seeking to remain dominant as the hegemony, seeking to maintain their rules-based order.
• The great masses have accelerated their disconnect from the traditional Western values, seeing them as being hollow, no longer having trust in their legacy media or their leadership.
• The Israeli land-based aircraft carrier has been the linchpin to the West dominance over West Asia, trade routes and energy supply. Europe in particular has relied on Israel for the security of those factors. The Resistance movements in West Asia have shaken the foundations of that coercive security.
• In this shift which is in reality the transfer of power from the West to East, as Gramsci stated we are now seeing the most varied morbid phenomena being evidenced by the Western powers, as in attacks on sovereign nations, their awakening of terrorist sleeper cells, economic sanctions and so forth.

There is a distinct irrationality pervasive throughout Western leadership. Nancy Pelosi recently gave a demonstration of that with her denouncing of protestors for Palestinians as ‘agents of Putin’ and telling another group of protestors outside her home to “go back to China.” This sort of behaviour is indicative of doubling down, of advanced age (fixed ideas) and an election year, where in the US ‘Russian interference’ will be played to the hilt by the Democrats, even though the meme has long since been debunked.

With these points in mind we move to the chart for the ICJ ruling, which took place at 12:42 UTC at The Hague, Netherlands. The time is taken from the live stream, which I was watching at the time. The court proceedings began just after noon, but the actual ruling was at 12:42. The chart for the event is below (bigger):

Since we are looking at an event chart for a judgement the 9^th house is quite important, representing courts and the legal system. Also important is the 7^th house, representing litigation, lawsuits, agreements and belligerents. In the chart above we note the Sun/Pluto conjunction, which is about the exercise of power. The outcome of lawsuits (in this instance the case brought forward by South Africa) is represented in the 8^th house, where we find a Mercury/Mars conjunction, showing the courage to speak as well as the power of the words, reflected through the Gemini Ascendant. Mercury/Mars has the following dynamic:

• “The power of resolution or determination, the love of discussion or argument, the ability to judge, a practical disposition, skill or dexterity, quickness at repartee or the power to retaliate in the right manner, impressive speaking.”

The ruling was indeed an impressive result. The Mercury/Mars conjunction squared the nodal axis, showing and widening the divisions within the world community, as well as the divide the ruling would exacerbate, as it did. The reading of Mercury/Mars in this case was positive and humanitarian, shown by the trine to Uranus, the latter in the 12^th house, showing the court readout of crimes being committed and elucidating the statements of genocidal intent by the Israeli officials and government. Secrets are unveiled with Uranus in the 12^th house.

The midpoints to the angles are of particular interest here:

• Asc=Ura/Plu: “Being placed in an unusual or restless environment. – Applications of force, an accident.”
• MC=Sat/Plu: “The desire to rise from difficult circumstances through the application of tenacity and endurance, severity, one-sided-ness, self-sacrifice. – An ascetic person, a magician or adept. – Separation. (Flight).”

Regarding the last midpoint, some of the judges would have faced considerable pressure to judge in favour of Israel, yet the American judge, who read out the ruling, ruled in favour of Palestine. The Biden administration was not pleased, “…contending that her positions do not reflect the opinion of the US administration.” That, perhaps, is the point – judges are appointed to be impartial (in an ideal world) in matters of law – in this case international law instead of the ‘rules-based order’. The ICJ showed its independence on that day, which will be addressed in the next post.

The last major considerations in the chart of the ruling are the Neptune square to the Horizon axis and Ceres at the Descendant, with Ceres and Neptune in a partile square. Ceres on the Descendant indicates the ruling was a turning point in the current conflict, as well as in the propaganda narrative coming out of Israel and the West. The Neptune square showed the attempt for Israel to obfuscate the case and blur boundaries. Neptune also showed the confusion the ruling generated among the public and the opportunity it presented for the West to place spin on the ruling.

Neptune has another side, though. It can exhibit as the planet of ‘positive disillusionment’, as in when one discovers a falsehood and illusions one had of a person, state or situation is shattered. This is what the ruling did for the wider world, for those people who could view it. From here we look at what the ruling will mean for Israel.

For the current state of play within Israel we turn to the Israel 16:15 chart with transits and directions, below (bigger):

We saw how Israel was affected at the outset of Al-Aqsa Flood in the previous post on this site, with Mars at the Saturn/Pluto midpoint and straddling the Israeli Ascendant and Saturn squaring the Meridian axis. It produced the most intense panic in the populace with resulting calls for collective vengeance. After a little over 100 days the solar arcs have changed only by 15+ minutes of arc and are still in effect. What has changed are the transits.

Now we see Pluto in Aquarius, but there was almost no activity by transits to the Israeli chart on the day of the ICJ ruling. That lack of effect was actually to be expected. As to why, it is because the Israelis see this as an existential conflict, with the very existence of the state into the future hanging on the outcome of this war. But in fact, all of the parties involved see this war as existential:

• To Palestinians this is actually an existential conflict, as they see themselves being either pushed out of the Levant completely or being killed off, in what is a very calculated and measured genocide.
• Western hegemony is on the line, because of control of the Suez and the energy resources of the region hangs on the balance with the outcome of this war. Western economies will have to go hat-in-hand and actually behave themselves if they want decent prices on energy and shipping once the Zionist project collapses.
• The American Empire is definitely in an existential fight for its continued existence, the same as the Western hegemony. Israel was a creation of the Western states, primarily the US and UK. When (not if) the BRICS countries take over management of the area’s resources – meaning primarily Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iran – the American and British neoliberal system based in the petro-dollar faces collapse, the very basis of the Western financial empire.
• The political classes in the US, UK and Western Europe see this as existential also, partly because they receive a great deal of their re-election funding from the Zionist lobbies (which have infiltrated and exert control over Western politicians), partly because many of the oligarchs the Western powers have made fortunes from Israel in arms sales, and intelligence gathering, and in leverage against the neighboring countries.
• The military-industrial complex in the United States will definitely see its profits tank as the power and influence of the West recedes and Israel collapses. To them, this conflict is also existential. Millions of American jobs are also at stake – and in an election year. There are also key elections across Europe this year.

It is rather interesting in looking at the directions and transits in the Israeli chart in that there were no significant transits to Israel’s chart on the day of the ICJ ruling – meaning there would be no immediate change in Israel’s behaviour. But that is about to change. Mars will be conjunct Pluto on Israel’s IC on the 10^th, when we can expect another major development in the war.

On the 9^th of February Mars will square the Saturn/Pluto midpoint, having squared the Horizon axis a couple of days before. As to the midpoint, we have: “Brutality, assault or violence, ruthlessness. – The necessity to fight for one’s existence or life.” The last bit goes back to the bullet points, above.

We don’t know exactly what will happen, but given the rumor mills on social media, the pending transits throughout February, the trajectory of world opinion, and growing divisions across the West about what to do with the Zionist entity, we might expect that February will be a deciding month as to how the conflict will end. If it goes on for much longer on its current path we can expect some more decisive intervention on behalf of the Palestinians by the Axis of Resistance.

More sober analyses of the military capabilities of the US and Israel in comparison with Iran spell out that Iran will not be participating in a wider regional war. Nobody else in the region or in Washington wants a war with Iran. There is some reassurance in that.

The Israelis may want to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon, but that is somewhat in doubt as well. What we see in the military situation there is a game of chicken. People who know the various factions of the axis of resistance are saying that the Israelis will have to strike first in hopes of some kind of victory (which is doubtful) or in drawing the United States into the war. The latter is also doubtful. It is an election year, and Biden and the Democrats want this war to end well before Election Day. That would be a victory for them.

Over the next weeks transiting Saturn will square the Israeli Ceres, marking another point of decision. There are talks of serious negotiations going on behind the scenes for a cease-fire and an exchange of hostages. More than likely that would happen around the time when Saturn squares the Israeli Ceres. And the US is actively pursuing the creation of an independent Palestinian state now instead of just talking about it:

“The United States is actively pursuing the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with security guarantees for Israel and exploring options with partners in the region, the State Department spokesperson said on Wednesday.”

Note the bolded text, emphasis added. There is no mention of security guarantees for Palestinians. The quote is double-speak, meaning a Palestinian state would have to be a completely demilitarized one, in Israel’s eyes, held in check by the ‘regional partners’, meaning the Arab states (who would be bribed to do so). There are serious doubts the Palestinians would accept such a deal. It would turn out to be just another open-air prison for Palestinians. And talk of the Palestinian state would come after the war was over, whatever that means. We might guess, but the answer would likely not be pretty.

If we think for a minute what an independent Palestinian state would mean, it would give the State of Palestine a permanent seat and status in the UN and thus come under UN protection. It would also mean the removal of the 200,000+ illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank – settlers who are themselves extremists, speaking of ‘fun and games’ (they would not leave voluntarily). And then, due to demographics, Israel would soon be dwarfed in population by the Palestinians. One doubts the Israelis would ever agree to such an arrangement, as it would mean the gradual dissolution of the Israeli state.

Now there is talk of the opposition leader in the Knesset forming a transitional government by joing the coalition government to displace the two nut job Zionists, Smotrich and Gvir. That would keep Netanyahu in power, but it would dampen the enthusiasm for the total wipe out of the Palestinians ‘from the river to the sea’.

And in a new twist, there is a report that Biden has issued sanctions against settlers in the West Bank. There are only four singled out for that at the moment, but the list could certainly quickly widen. If that happens, it is sure to send shockwaves through the more hard-line Zionists in Israel.

Militarily, as much as Israel would love to see the US strike Iran, and hard, the US instead will be prosecuting a week long set of strikes against so-called Iranian targets in Syria and Iraq. The Iraqi militia who targeted the US base at Al-Tanf has walked back their strikes in a conciliatory move aimed at promoting a cease-fire. But if the US begins hitting targets in Iraq again, the offer may be off the table.

In all, except for the Israelis, every party involved is trying to carefully manage the spill-over from this conflict to prevent a wider regional war. It must be coming clear to the Israelis that the United States is not going to sweep in and secure Israel. The Europeans, having exhausted their military in Ukraine, have no hope of intervening in the Israeli conflict at all except for token measures.

By the beginning of March the situation in the Levant should be much clarified. Transiting Saturn will square Israel’s Mercury, showing the necessity for hard talk and very likely the receipt of bad news, both for Israel and for the West. In addition, transiting Neptune will begin to aspect Jupiter and Pluto in the Israeli chart, likely signalling a general sense of disappointment among the Israeli populace, along with the realization of great damage caused to Israel without their being aware of it in the heat of their impassioned hysteria.

Looking at all this from the outside the solution all this would seem rather very simple: the United States needs to call a halt to the Israeli genocide and stop sending weapons to Israel (although the military-industrial complex in the US will balk at the idea), and in doing so the Resistance groups in the region will halt their attacks on Israel and the American bases, while the Houthtis in Yemen will allow ships bound for Israel through to the Suez Canal, thus allowing the Israeli economy to reconstitute itself. A very tenuous and stressful peace would ensue in the region. But the Palestinians would be able to rebuild, feed themselves and bury their dead.

Israelis reject that out of hand in their current state of mind, what there is of actual thinking in this. Both Biden and Netanyahu are boxed in. Biden faces a disastrous electoral defeat, while Bibi face prison and eternal scorn. As to Hamas, their stance is clear and unwavering:

“…We want guarantees to end the genocidal war against our people. The resistance is not weak. No conditions will be imposed on it” (Ali Abu Shahin, member of Islamic Jihad’s political bureau).

“Our position is a ceasefire, the opening of the Rafah crossing, international and Arab guarantees for the restoration of the Gaza Strip, the withdrawal of the occupation forces from Gaza, finding a housing solution for the displaced and the release of prisoners according to the principle of all for all … I am confident that we are heading for victory. The patience of the American administration is running out because Netanyahu is not bringing achievements” (Senior Hamas official, Alli Baraka).”

The situation could not be clearer: Israel is on suicide watch. The world has changed. The Resistance has all the means to bring an end to the American occupation in the Middle East and the end of the Israeli state if it comes to that.

As to Israel itself, the Zionists will come under very intensive pressure for a two-state solution if they want to survive in a separate Israeli state. Otherwise, if the zealots and in Israel maintain their grip, Israel will begin its dissolution, as forecast by Col. Lawrence Wilkerson (ret.). As of now, we do what we can in our own small way to keep up the pressure to stop the genocide, in words and in actions.

One small action to bring pressure on the Israelis is to apply the BDS and shun products from Israel until they pull themselves in and stop the genocide. Any product with a barcode that starts with the numbers 729 comes from a company registered in Israel, for instance. Better yet, buy local and support our farmers. We make a stand for peace and humanity, or we sit on our hands equivocating and watch as the ‘various morbid phenomena’ continue, choosing to live with the outcome, like it or not. We do have choices here.

Featured pic from Awni Eshtaiwe