On October 9th 2023 a senior Hamas official announced it had ‘achieved all of its targets’ in Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, and was open to negotiations to end the conflict. Yet the conflict continues. In this 2nd part of our examination of Al-Aqsa Flood, we will look at the causes for the current operations (there have been many, and on both sides) and what this will mean for Israel going forward.
It would appear there has been a paradigm shift in Israeli, Palestinian and greater geopolitical relations relative to the eastern Mediterranean region. Bibi Netanyahu was correct when he stated this conflict and impending normalization with the Saudis would change the security arrangements in the region, but he was wrong in his assumption it would be in Israel’s favour. Since the violence erupted it has become clearer just what the Israelis hope to achieve now that they have their mistaken belief of their own 9/11-like event. We have the following scenario:
There is a bitter irony in what is taking place in Israel at the moment for anyone who knows the history of the founding of Israel and the history of Palestine. The ruling coalition in Tel Aviv sees the present conflict as a means toward a ‘final solution’ (re: the other ‘final solution’) to their ‘Palestinian question’. There is something to contemplate. Therein, the strategy is to remove the Palestinians from the 1947 Palestine borders or kill them off, thus establishing a single Israeli state. The tactic is to use the present conflict as a catalyst to garner the support of the West, and if things get really rough, to involve the United States directly in the conflict.
As an aside, if we want further irony, aside from the comparison between the Israeli strategy and the Nazi final solution, is that Jews have been living continuously in Palestine since before the Roman Empire, peacefully, alongside other West Asian groups, Arabs included. To put it another way, for many centuries indigenous Jews of the region have been Palestinian, of the Jewish families who have lived on that land for many centuries. Zionism has ruined that legacy, at least for the moment.
Further than that, the ultimate goal of the Zionists is to remove Iran as a threat. With the recent rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and now the induction of the Saudis into the BRICS group, the hard line Israelis saw that time to finish their project was getting very short. Reports from Hamas claim that Israel was planning on attacking Gaza in the days after Sukkot.
Then there is another prong to the plan of the Zionists, which is that with the removal of the Palestinians, the refugees would be forced into the neighboring countries, notably Egypt and Jordan, with lesser numbers to Lebanon and Syria, thus further destabilizing those nations, who are all enduring financial and social hardships at the moment. All four states share the border with Israel. But Egypt is the preferred destination for Palestinians (in the plans for the Israelis), while Jordan would likewise be the destination for the Palestinians of the West Bank. So, rather than the Biblical Jews wandering in the Sinai desert, it would be the Palestinians.
This displacement of Palestinians from Palestine is called by another name: ethnic cleansing, and it is a war crime. There is now armed Palestinian resistance in the West Bank, with clashes reported. And those million or so Gazans who were told to flee to the south of Gaza? – they are being bombed as they try to flee. That, too, is a war crime.
So, if Hamas has ‘achieved its targets’, what might those be? They were to pre-emp the Israeli actions, to attack the southern Israeli military posts and disarm them (those posts are at the border of Gaza), to show the weaknesses in the IDF and Israeli security apparatus and to show the Israeli public they are not safe and to give them a sense of what Palestinians experience on a daily basis. And finally, the Operation has shown the Israeli public that the Palestinians are a force to be reckoned with, and that they are not going away, at least peacefully. Hamas sees the ongoing conflict as a war of liberation. Without understanding the context and a bit of history leading to the present events, though, it is not really possible to get a sense of outcomes. Some background is in order.
The situation in Palestine and West Asia is not cut-and-dried. This is not a simple black-and-white matter of an alleged terrorist group (Hamas) attacking innocent civilians in an allegedly peaceful democracy (The Narrative re: Israel). Instead what we are seeing is a combination of victim blaming (the Israelis and the West) blaming the Palestinians (Hamas and other more militant Palestinian factions), conflating various groups (Hamas/Iran, Hamas/Palestinians, Zionists/Jews, and so forth), corrupt and divided politics, geopolitics and so forth. In short, this conflict has been in the works and has grown over many decades, in fact for over a century (video, must see).
What are the factors involved in this present conflict, then? We have the following (and thumbnail) elements:
- The two biggest factors are Bibi Netanyahu and the US/UK, but you have to go outside Western media (which has shut down all but pro-Israeli content) to see them.
- The Western media, with various platforms (Meta, YouTube, Instagram, etc.) cancelling all content supportive of Palestinians and instead pushing all pro-Israeli content while whitewashing Israeli atrocities. There are atrocities on all sides in a war. War itself is an atrocity. Meanwhile social media across the Global South is fully aware of Israeli and Western actions and atrocities, including Israeli targeting of hospitals and journalists.
- Zionism, which is definitely racist and has become a form of fascism. Saying Zionism is anti-Semitic is a false narrative.
- Anti-Arab racism
- Ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians, which in fact has been underway by ‘stealth’ (openly to those who watch) for many years, and recently accelerated under the present Netanyahu regime. We are witnessing the attempt at a 2nd Nakba.
- Anti-Semitism, with many comments across social media blaming the Jews en masse for the troubles in Palestine and in many other conflicts. See 2nd bullet point. There are factions among Jews who feel the land stolen from Palestinians should be returned, for instance.
- Evangelical Christianity, who support Israel, but hope to see its destruction.
- Oppression of Palestinians (the apartheid nature of ‘Israeli democracy’), stemming from the Zionist government and settlers
- Eschatological, with the al-Aqsa mosque being the 3rd-holiest site in Islam, the others being the Masjid al-Haram in Mecca (holiest) and the Prophet’s Mosque in Medina, the latter two in Saudi Arabia. The present battle for Hamas, aside from freeing Palestinians from Gaza, is about saving al-Aqsa. Storming of the al-Aqsa Mosque by Israeli settlers was a red line for Hamas, and Islam in general, and triggered the current round of warfare in Israel.
One of the more telling phenomena that has arisen since Al-Aqsa Flood started is that many of the MAGA supporters in the US who are so vehement in their opposition to arming Ukraine completely flipped when it comes to Israel and now fully support arming Israel to the teeth and wiping out the Palestinians. And many of the MAGA supporters call themselves Christians, forgetting or not knowing Jesus was a Palestinian Jew. It shows a general historical illiteracy as well as racism, recently recounted in a video with George Galloway.
It is also of interest to note the Temple Mount, where the al-Aqsa is situation is also the site of the Church of the Holy Sepulchre for Christianity. Christian pilgrims to the site are increasingly spat upon and harassed by Zionist residents (which the media calls Jewish extremists), with such events having increased in recent months. The present Israeli government has fostered a culture of impunity in Israel. Continuing with our points:
- Geopolitical, which goes to the crux of the immovable Western support for Israel in spite of Israeli crimes against Palestinians. The Western media turns a blind eye to those and has done so for many years. The conflict now is not so much religious as it is about two factors – 1) Bibi Netanyahu and his corruption, try as he might to avoid jail and 2) oil, arms and trade, with another twist, which is the huge gas fields recently discovered off the coast of Gaza, which by rights belong to the Palestinians. The math is fairly easy on that score, as in why the Israelis and Americans want the Palestinians out of Gaza.
- Domestic politics, where Western and the Israeli leaders are facing increasing opposition to their policies at home. Bibi himself could be facing jail time if there were no war. He may face jail anyway.
- Regional states’ animosity towards Israel, which has been there from the Israeli state’s beginning, starting with the Balfour Declaration.
- Control of oil and gas resources and trade routes to and from the Europe and North Africa. The Suez Canal. 12% of world trade and 30% of the world’s container traffic passes through the canal each year – over $1 trillion in goods.
- Arms sales within the region by the US and European weapons industry. There is big money being made in keeping Israel and neighboring states in adversity and destabilized.
We begin to get a picture, then, of why the quick resolution of this present conflict is on everyone’s mind and vested interests: If the war goes wider and involves the Red Sea and Eastern Mediterranean, then the world economy would take a massive hit. No insurance company will insure shipping through a war zone, for instance. Israel’s Operation Iron Swords is rather more like a Sword of Damocles hanging over the fragile world economy.
However, if you really want to be alarmed there is also a plausible ladder of escalation if matters go unchecked, too terrible to consider, but it is linked here. The hardliners – the Zionists in Israel and the US/UK, Hamas and Hezbollah – see this particular phase of the conflict as existential. It is now or never, do-or-die. It really is at that point now. There will be no ‘return to normal’ after the fighting stops.
Let’s get to specifics, then, as to what is at stake here. Firstly, the West has a Zionist problem, of its own making. The Suez Canal and the control of resources is a big part of why, along with weapons sales. Supporting Israel means the protection of resources for Western interests, and shipping is a big part of why Israel is allowed to exist or was even founded to start. Americans call Israel their ‘land-based aircraft carrier’. Outside the West the Israelis are just not deemed to be that important. If a picture is worth a thousand words, then a quick showing of the world’s population that supports a two-state solution (meaning recognizing Palestine as a sovereign and free state) and those who oppose it is pretty telling:
Do we notice anything familiar? Well, it quite resembles this map:
Yes, the ‘gray area’ on the first map are countries who do not recognize Palestine as a state, and they are largely all Western or Western-controlled, matching the dark blue nations in the map immediately above. Maybe a pattern emerges…
Africa and the Americas can receive trade directly from East Asia with no need for the Suez Canal, (map, scroll to the last map) but Europe relies on the Suez for economical shipping rates, especially for oil. Normalization between the Saudis and other Gulf states would have been a big insurance policy in that regard. Now, all that rapprochement has at least been put on hold, if not scuttled by the current war. This was the first ‘target’ for Hamas with Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.
Looking at the above and considering the previous statements regarding the US, Europe and the Suez Canal, any rational analysis turns a favorite narrative – that Jews have overt control over Western governments – on its head. It is the US, the UK and the EU powers (meaning their elites and vested interests) who use the Israelis to keep the West Asian region in check and destabilized if need be, and it started with the British Mandate and the breakup of the Ottoman Empire. It is a racket, like war, and it needs to stop if there is ever to be any peace in the region.
This false view of Israel leading the Western powers by the nose was recently nicely summarized in another video (another must see), which is a message to the people of Israel and the region. The speaker is controversial, but his message is true. Substitute ‘Washington’ for the ‘United States’ in his dialog and the message will be clear. It bears some serious re-thinking when it comes to Israel and as to why Western leaders have rushed to ‘stand by Israel’ and have called for killing out Hamas. That brings us to Bibi, because when it comes to this war, in many ways, it’s all about the Beebs.
All is not well in Bibi-land. The Israeli politic is split, with his hard-right coalition hanging on by a mere thread. There is a unity government at the moment, but as soon as the fighting stops Bibi will stand exposed, as will the coalition, with very public and intensive international pressure for him to step aside and dissolve government. Alastair Crooke outlined the divide in a recent piece, saying the government is divided between the Mizrahi Jews (Sephardic, Asian/Spanish/North African Jews) and the Ashkenazi Jews (German/East European Jews), the latter who would prefer a two-state solution. American Jews are largely Ashkenazi. The Mizrahi have been an underclass in Israeli society, and they will likely be returned to that status after this war is finished.
A clear 86% of Israelis polled after Operation Al-Aqsa Flood was launched blame Bibi Netanyahu for the war. That in itself is astounding, if we think about it. More than half of those polled want him to step down. Normally a nation at war rallies around its leader. After this war is finished, Netanyahu is facing jail time for corruption. This brings us to the Israeli chart.
The Mars/Pluto square described previously sits astride the angles of the 16:15 chart. In addition, transiting Mars is on the Israeli Ascendant, activating the Saturn/Pluto midpoint which has directed to the Ascendant. Pluto is square the Horizon axis from the 3rd house (broadcasts and broadcasters, public opinion, neighboring states) conjunct the 4th house cusp (infrastructure, homeland). Pluto is the great disruptor here, with Mars (war) coming directly to the Israeli public, activating the midpoint:
- Mars=Sat/Plu: “Brutality, assault or violence, ruthlessness. – The necessity to fight for one’s existence or life, maltreatment.”
Even without Mars, we have the following for that midpoint:
- Asc=Sat/Plu: “Being placed in cumbersome and difficult circumstances. – Separation, mourning and bereavement.”
What we see from the Israeli chart is that the attack and subsequent declaration of war by Bibi was an event waiting to happen. Then we add Saturn to the mix, which squares the Meridian axis by direction, showing the isolation Israel is facing in the region, the gravity of the situation, the effects it is having on the leadership (10th house) and the public (4th house) and the inevitable choices that are being forced upon the society as a whole. It also shows the hindrance of military mobilization and the lack of preparedness for the event. Then, there is the Israeli leadership.
The sitting government (Bibi’s coalition) is shown by the MC (Midheaven), which is directed to the natal Neptune – confusion, wrong views, illusions of power, “People with utopian ideas, crooks or swindlers. “Men of big talk but not of action”. Weaklings” and “A devotion to peculiar objectives, the inclination to feign, pose or put on an act. – The pursuit of wrong ideas, proneness to deception.” The Ascendant of the event (6:34 am) was on the Israeli directed MC, showing the deceptive element in the attack and the intelligence failure that allowed it.
Then, there was transiting Uranus on the Israeli Sun (leaders), the latter representing Bibi in this case, with Uranus throwing the proverbial wrench in the works (his plans for Israel and his trying to avoid jail time for corruption). He also has transiting Pluto squaring his Sun at the moment, indicating he will play this event for all it is worth in hopes of further consolidating his power and position. It may just have the opposite effect. Time will tell.
But with Uranus transiting back and forth over Israel’s Sun on through half of 2025 and squaring the Israeli Mars, war is on the cards for at least months if not more than a year, with very great changes in store for Israel. Needless to say, some very serious miscalculations and misjudgements have been made on the Israeli side, all the while the Axis of Resistance has been patiently waiting and watching, all the while building and refining its capabilities..
Israeli insiders say Bibi is finished as PM as soon as the fighting stops. In two months (6th Dec) transiting Pluto will be sitting on the Israeli IC (4th house cusp), which rules opposition parties as well as infrastructure and homeland security. That would be a general sort of timeline for him to be removed. At the same time the progressed Moon will square its natal position, showing tensions within the populace and within the government, since the Moon rules the 10th house (sitting government). Israel’s image on the world stage will also likely be at its lowest point in decades, with its infrastructure, shall we say, shaky at best. At the same time directed Saturn will exactly square the natal Horizon axis, giving us the following combination:
- Plu=Sat/MC: “The attainment of success in life only under great difficulties. A fateful struggle, a struggle ordained by destiny.”
That struggle has only just begun in its present manifestation, and indications are it will continue to escalate, or that the IDF will be bogged down in a quagmire in Gaza with horrific losses on both sides. It is a struggle entirely of the making of the US and the Zionists, with the other actors in the unfolding drama being drawn, willingly or otherwise, into the mix.
How do we see the situation for the Israeli public at that point? – ‘tense’ hardly describes it. Here are a few more stats: The IDF has called up a total of 660,000 reservists plus the 170,000 in the regular standing forces. Israel has a total labor force of 4.4 million. That spells immediate trouble for the Israeli economy:
“This is not sustainable for more than a week or two. With 660,000 mostly young people, 15% of the total workforce, suddenly absent, Israel’s economy will immediately tank. The Shekel and the Israeli stock market have already dropped significantly and the central bank had to intervene to keep the currency stable.”
The EU is back-peddling on freezing all aid payments to the Palestinians. Diplomacy from the Western side is not working at the moment, but obviously threats do work on Israel. The Israeli ground operation into Gaza was supposed to have started a few days ago, but it was ‘delayed on account of rain’. That is obvious rubbish and the Global South is laughing about it. The excuse is being trolled on Twitter, one of the few Western platforms that still allows such comment. Pepe Escobar recently did just that, with some added content, saying the IDF had been flatly warned against going into Gaza. So, the IDF and the West are in a conundrum at the moment – go in and light a fire across West Asia and risk having Israel destroyed as a viable state, or show some sense and save yourselves. There are other factors at work, too.
Diplomacy, however, is going on and at a furious pace between many of the states within the Global South (the ‘non-West’, roughly 85% of the world’s population). Blinken made a tour of the Middle East (West Asia) in an effort to garner support for the Israeli actions, and he was flatly snubbed and told to go back to Washington. Meanwhile there were large delegations of the Arab states in China, at their request, to discuss the situation in Gaza. Iran and the Saudis have been on the phone in solidarity with the Palestinians – unprecedented. And Russia has been discussing alternatives to lift the humanitarian crisis now extant in Gaza.
There is a huge humanitarian aid convoy from Egypt poised at the Rafah crossing, waiting to go into Gaza as soon as foreigners in Gaza are allowed to leave. Israel has vowed to bomb the convoy. Do they risk the public relations fallout from such an obvious act of brutality, as well as it being seen as a war crime? Then, there are Russia and Turkey, who are mulling the idea of another aid convoy by sea, protected by Russian warships and the Russian Aerospace forces. Russia has recently soured on Israel due to Israeli participation against Russia in Ukraine. Russia is reoriented toward the Arabs. Then, there are Hezbollah anti-ship missiles, which would no doubt reach out and greet the US/Navy should the US get involved. And finally, there is the little matter of the strategic and military partnership between Russia and Iran.
This conflict is not Sheikh Jarrah. Hamas and Hezbollah are far stronger now than then. The geopolitics of the region has shifted away from its West-centric leaning, with Egypt, the Saudis and Iran all now BRICS members, and probably soon to all be members of the SCO. The US and NATO are much weaker now due to the war in Ukraine, and depleted. Despite what we hear in the West, the Global South sees very clearly what is going on with the IDF and Gaza and they are much angered at the West in general and Israelis in particular. There will be no return to the status quo in Israel after this. The political and social turmoil within Israel will continue long after the fighting stops, while the Palestinians will be facing a new lease on life as Israel’s power wanes.
What are the likely outcomes, then, given all that has been outlined in these two posts? Nothing is written in stone or in the stars, but the following are leading in certain trajectories, depending on how far this situation escalates, going from better to worse. We won’t go into all the reasons here, but they should be obvious:
- With increasing pressure on Israel, a ceasefire will be called, first for humanitarian corridors to be opened, giving time for both sides to re-arm and collect themselves. At that point some common sense will begin to dawn. But that would mean Bibi would be on the ropes. With the far-right regime gone, real negotiations can take place, but the Palestinians and much of the Global South will be demanding a return of Palestinian lands. The result would eventually be a two-state solution, with a free and sovereign Palestine at 1967 borders. There would be stiff resistance to this in the West and within Israel. The Russian Foreign Ministry recently called for this:
Or, we could likely see…
- A negotiated one-state solution is also a distant possibility, with equal rights for all, but that would also lead to an end of Israel as it has existed (due to demographics), probably starting a large exodus of Jews from old Palestine. In the worst case…
- Massive destruction within British Mandate Palestine amidst a regional war, with Hezbollah, all radicalized Palestinians and Arabs and Iran arrayed against Israel and the West, and a world financial disaster. Israel as it was would cease to exist. Pray it doesn’t come to that, but that is the worst-case scenario. The first scenario is the most desirable.
“Once Ben Gurion stated “the [Palestinian] old will die and the young will forget” and an Israeli general once quipped “one we have settled the land, all the “Arabs” will be able to do is run around like drugged cockroaches in a bottle.” The events since Saturday morning show just how foolish they are. The events also reveal how foolish are the dictatorial regimes and the regimes of governments in the West who cajole, normalize, and support Israeli colonialism, exceptionalism and racism. The game is up and the cards are exposed.
Finally, I say Palestinians and all people of conscience are with our people in Gaza as they face the wrath of the racist apartheid regime. May the recent events dubbed “Al-Aqsa flood” result in a flood of truth, justice, and humanity (long overdue in Palestine). That is the only way to end the violence (colonizers and resistance).”
Featured pic from Palestinian artist: Beesan Arafat, “The Bulldozer”