The AUKUS pact has faded from the news feed for now. But the effects of it will be felt across Europe for months to come. It is apparent at this point the Anglo nations, minus the Kiwis, are circling the wagons in preparation for a showdown with China – or so they seem to think. But what is that going to mean for Europe? Well, it seems the EU is not the superstate than many people thought it was, nor as important as the European Atlanticists thought they were to Uncle Sam. AUKUS has sent a shudder up the spine of the NATO alliance, and as a result, of the EU itself. We will examine what this event means for Europe in this post and some of the wider implications for the future of Europe, of NATO and the West in general.
Several points stand out clearly from the AUKUS pact, which would be helpful to keep in mind as we go along here. Firstly, the EU has faded from importance as an alliance with the US. Russia is no longer seen as the biggest threat, and European nations are starting to turn to Russia for their energy needs, thus making them unreliable as allies against Russia in the eyes of the Beltway. They are also seeking business with China, and some of them for wider business with Russia. Looking back at the Mearsheimer clip in Part I, we see that instead of Australia being in a quandary, it is now the EU who faces the undesired and undeserved choice of with whom they will side, if ‘choosing sides’ should be the issue.
The big game for the US and UK now is China. There is a fundamental reason why it is the Anglo nations who are fronting this opposition to China, and that is because the Anglo nations are the primary seats of the neoliberal financial system that still holds much of the world in its thrall. China poses probably the biggest threat to that system. It is the old battle between finance and labor which is being worked out here, and the success or failure of either side will decide the future of finance and economies for the immediate decades ahead for much of the planet.
Secondly, the loss of Hong Kong due to the new Chinese security laws there and the dying out of the protests (which were in fact an attempt at a color revolution) has been a significant loss for the secrecy locations of the financialized West, especially for the UK. Hong Kong has been de facto reabsorbed into the mainland. It is also indefensible against the PLA.
Thirdly there is Taiwan, which is the seat of the most advanced chip manufacturing base in the world. That is a prize to which the West desperately needs to hold. It is also the biggest hotspot in the region, since the Taiwanese have been making a few noises about independence. That does not go down well with the Chinese. But Taiwan, too, is essentially indefensible against the PLA, should worse come to worse. Taiwan will in all likelihood eventually see the light and be reabsorbed into the mainland.
Fourthly, the loss of Afghanistan means the US will have to approach and try to push back on China’s progress by sea. But due to China’s standoff capabilities, surface fleets are useless. A carrier battle group would not be able to approach close enough to shore to be able to allow for air attacks. South Korea would be a possibility there, but the South Koreans would probably also have to contend with the North Koreans as well as China at the same time. Any attacks would have to be by submarine, and that means the main strategy at which Washington is looking primarily is shutting down the shipping lanes through the Indo-Pacific region.
Then, lastly, there are the Russians to consider. If China is attacked, Russia is all-in. China is Russia’s biggest trading partner, with a long land border between them. Any threat to China is a threat to Russia, too. For this reason, as well as AUKUS, there have been high level meetings in the past days in Moscow, and especially noted are meetings between Putin and Shoigu, the Russian Defense Minister. We do not know the substance of those meetings and likely Afghanistan figures in them as well. But when we look at the timing of events, AUKUS would be a good guess as to at least part of discussion. Nuclear submarines threaten Russia as well as China.
Then, why are there not French submarines involved with AUKUS? If there are, we do not hear about them. The obvious answer for now is the backstabbing that AUKUS represents to the French. But, the French are the only EU nation to have nuclear subs. The remaining EU states (the UK is not in the EU) have only littoral subs, basically, able to operate only in Mediterranean or regional Atlantic waters. The Russians, on the other hand, have 56 nuclear subs, with more on the way. And the Chinese are building them, too, as fast as they can.
With all the preceding in mind, we start, then, with the chart of the NATO on the day AUKUS was announced. The chart with directions and transits is below (bigger):
Alliances are marked by the 7th house and Venus in general. In the case of NATO, Venus rules the 7th house. Venus squares Uranus in NATO’s chart, showing the fluid nature of the alliance, along with nervous tensions and unfaithfulness. The latter has shown as its inability to stick with agreements, as in agreeing that NATO would not move one inch further to the east on the reunification of Germany. Turkey also shows the fluidity of the alliance, with its double-dealing with Russia and independent stance.
Directed Jupiter and Saturn were both aspecting Venus on the day, as well as Uranus, thus forming a potent combination of planets. At the same time, transiting Mars was approaching the conjunction of natal Venus. One of the directions formed was a t-square, with the Venus/Jupiter opposition as the base and Uranus as the apex planet. Normally that combination points to sudden or unexpected happiness in love as well as excesses in love. Had Saturn not been involved as well, AUKUS would have looked like an alliance of great power.
With the direction of Jupiter and Saturn together with Venus and Uranus, though, the picture is quite different. Instead of great happiness and suddenly fulfilled wishes, we see the following midpoint with Venus, paraphrasing Ebertin, Ven=Jup/Sat: A lack of endurance or tenaciousness, discontent, an inconstancy in alliance. – Changing fortunes in the alliance. This is combined also with the following, Ura=Jup/Sat: “Strong emotional tensions, a frequent change of-mood, irritability. – A sudden loss of consciousness (through illness, shock or death) [or perhaps French apoplexy], sudden change in circumstance, making great efforts, a change of residence, a change of occupation.”
All the preceding is further emphasized by the directed ascendant squaring the natal Neptune, pointing to a deceptive move or circumstance, lack of clarity as to motive, abuse or betrayal of confidence, the experience of disappointment and disillusionment.
Then, adding to the Neptune/Ascendant, and to add the icing to the cake, or the nail in the coffin, as you like, we find directed Neptune to natal Mercury, activated by the Sun on the day, which has deception and liars written all over it.
We note Venus and Mercury are in the NATO 11th house, which is cooperation, friendship, desires for the alliance and so forth, as well as contracts with foreign countries. With friends like the US and UK, why not make friends with Russia instead, to borrow a saying? Well, that is exactly the way Germany and Hungary may be headed, so long as the Atlanticists don’t seize power in Germany once a coalition is formed. The EU faces an energy crisis, and Russia has all the gas the EU could ever want. The EU is just waiting on approval for Germany to open the valves.
There was a recent Atlanticist article not-so-subtly telling the Europeans they would eventually have to fall in line with AUKUS or be sidelined, the choice being between doing commerce with China or staying in the Atlantic bloc. Forcing such a decision will tend to divide Europe. The Europeans desire to do business with both Russia and China, which goes against the very purpose of NATO to begin with, which was to keep the Russians out, the Americans in and Germany down. It is a nightmare of epic proportions in Beltway-think for Germany and Russia to be cooperating in any fashion. Nordstream 2 would have been a signal to Washington that the tide within NATO was turning and may in fact have played some role in the decision on AUKUS.
We can leave the NATO/AUKUS chart, then, and move on to a look at what AUKUS might mean for the EU. That chart for the EU with transits and directions is below (bigger):
We find a few similar features in the EU chart and directions to it that we see in the NATO chart. The chart is set for a couple of days after the AUKUS announcement, but it makes no difference in terms of directions. We find the same natal Venus/Uranus square in the EU chart as we see in the NATO chart, which is telling. Venus square to Uranus can also indicate fly-by-night relations and fair-weather friends. That square is directed to the EU horizon, which also points to sudden ruptures in relations, or sudden and unexpected changes in relations.
Then, we note Uranus and Neptune are in partile conjunction, square to Venus in the EU chart, and the Uranus/Neptune conjunction is directed to within a degree of the 7th house cusp. The Europeans never saw AUKUS coming. Brussels was asleep at the wheel. Here is the reading of the midpoint ASC=Ura/Nep, paraphrasing: “A partnership which is influenced easily, instability, hyper-sensitiveness. – The state of being depressed or sad…” Depressed or sad – you think?
The other directed midpoints to the Ascendant also point to sudden changes in relations, breaks, deceptions, exploitation and unrealistic expectations. Those are shown in the red box on the Horizon axis in the center wheel, Asc=Mer/Ura, and Asc=Mer/Nep.
In like fashion, the directed midpoints to the EU Meridian axis tell a similar story, but this time in terms of ‘love relations’ (alliances), and those point to disillusionment, being lost in illusion, sudden realizations about relations and disappointment. Transiting Mars was activating all those midpoints and those angles on the day of the AUKUS announcement.
Even more indicative, though, is the direction of the Saturn/Pluto midpoint to the EU Scorpio Sun: “Physical toil and over-exertion, sparing no pains in one’s work. – Renunciation, privation, a physical separation.” On top of that, directed Pluto is semisquare the EU Sun and transiting Saturn squared the EU Sun in its retrograde phase, where it will station and then turn direct. Thus, there is a dual Saturn/Pluto action on the EU Sun – a very heavy and sobering influence. The reality of Anglo relations with the EU bloc has bitten hard. Lastly, the directed Sun is square the EU Chiron, and many old sore spots within the EU and toward the US and UK have been highlighted by the AUKUS pact.
In unpacking all the preceding, one thing to keep clearly in mind as time goes on is that the US is geared toward war. It was founded and grew on a colonialist spirit, by European colonialist cultures – French and British primarily, and also Spanish to an extent. The war machine in the US is so embedded in US society now as to seem impossible to dismantle without a huge crisis. The Chinese, for their part, just want to do business and are reacting to the Anglo military buildup in their region.
The subs proposed to Australia are big ticket items, the sort which Congress loves, because parts for them will be manufactured across the fifty states, and more likely assembled in Australia. Australia does not have the infrastructure or the tech at present to manufacture some of the parts to be used in those subs. The thing is, the planning and final draft of the deal will not be known for another 18 months, and the subs will not be in service for at least 15 years. A lot can happen in 15 years, and at the rates the West is falling behind and the East is rising, the outcome at present does not bode well for AUKUS. Much of the deal is about domestic politics and sour grapes anyway.
Speaking of sour grapes, one thing never mentioned, also to keep in mind, is the role of the Murdoch press in fomenting much of the hatred toward China across sectors of the Anglosphere, where Murdoch’s media empire holds sway. A rather enlightening video, just linked, explains it, as well as why the Anglosphere is so divided about China. Murdoch is the gorilla in the room no politician will mention. An interesting indicator was ScoMo’s recent trip to the Beltway, where he met with Biden. Just a few short hours later ScoMo met with Murdoch, probably to get the ratings on his performance in Washington. Murdoch holds great animosity toward China. Murdoch also owns Sky News and Fox News. His media holdings are vast, and he definitely points his media armada at China. This is particularly troubling for Australia, where Murdoch owns 80% of the local papers. But we are talking about the EU and NATO here (He also owns Sky news in Europe as well).
The EU and NATO face existential choices in the next immediate years ahead. This is clear in the astrology for the bloc and the alliance. Turkey, for instance, has seen the light and is gradually hooking its wagon to Russia and points eastward. If NATO loses Turkey, the alliance will lose its 2nd-largest military force. Erdogan is quite astute and sees the writing on the wall.
US relations with Turkey are not stellar, to say the least. And we may well see another order by the Turks for the Russian S-400 missile defense system. Erdogan just held talks with Putin in Sochi. Under discussion were Syria, geopolitics and the possibility of a Russian nuclear reactor in Turkey, as well as gas supplies, pretty well assured for the Turks now, in the midst of the growing energy crisis in the EU.
Speaking of energy, the way forward for Europe is clear enough. The EU can buy gas from Russia, or shiver through the winter and pay higher prices to EU oligarchs. Italy may fare a little better, as it gets the lion’s share of its gas from the South Stream pipeline out of Russia. But even there, we just got notice yesterday that utility prices will be 30% higher at the start of November as a result of the energy crunch – a crisis that did not have to be, much like the COVID crisis.
But the big and most obvious issue is that Europe is a part of the Eurasian landmass, and it only makes sense that its economic future is tied more strongly to Eurasia than to North America. Geography dictates the obvious. Culture clashes with the obvious. Economic realities will decide the matter.
NATO is a tool of the US to exert control over the Continent. It is becoming increasingly redundant and untenable. Russia poses no military threat to Europe. Its biggest ‘threat’ is that it will strike business deals with Germany, which Atlanticist factions are already hard at work to sabotage, recent examples being the delay of certification for Nord Stream 2 and Germany banning the RT channel in German on YouTube. Russia is considering banning YouTube in Russia. These actions bear no benefit to anyone except American interests. YouTube is own by Google, an American tech giant.
The truth about the EU is that a few small and loudly protesting states are preventing the larger bloc from having good relations with Russia, and Washington courts those nations assiduously. The EU is being used by Atlanticist interests as a cudgel against Russia, in hopes of preventing the rise of both Russia and China. It is a policy, given its trajectory, which will only cause suffering for Europe. Russia does not need Europe. It has turned its attention to the East and Central Asia. But the EU needs Russia. Such policies will also only hasten the deterioration of the EU bloc and relations across the Atlantic.
AUKUS will probably never work. The costs will be too high for Australia and the idea on the whole is unrealistic. But the damage done to Anglo-EU relations has marked a turning point in those relations. The US is becoming more insular. The UK is left hanging between the US and EU and is in a very difficult spot now because of Brexit and mismanagement of COVID. If Australia continues to antagonize China, it too will find itself in very difficult financial and economic straits. A new cold war with China will cause the whole of the Anglosphere to come unstuck. This is not overstating matters.
The EU must decide, with Hungary making a choice eastward, whether to grow some spine regarding the US or to face increasing prices, decline in living standards, rising civil disobedience and fracturing of the bloc. The choice would appear to be rather obvious. AUKUS may well be one of those events that has been a blessing in disguise for the EU, and thereby, for peace and prosperity for Europe in the future, as the Anglosphere deals with its own increasing internal challenges.
Featured pic from The Economist (Benedetto Cristofani, cartoonist)